NASDAQ / Last 4 quarters

AXTI earnings call analysis

AXTI. AI-assisted transcript summaries focused on management tone, evasions, goalpost moving, catalysts, risks, and data-center exposure.

4 storedAug 9, 2026

Research summary and source transcript

readyAug 9, 2026

AXTI's FY2026 Q2 call is best read as a thesis-quality check, not a transcript recap. The upside case is that AI and compute-heavy infrastructure demand are becoming real drivers of customer activity. The key investor question is whether that activity converts into durable revenue, royalties, margins, and cash flow rather than remaining a strong-sounding demand story.

Framework #1 asks what management may know now that the market may not fully recognize for 6-24 months. For AXTI, the possible information gradient is whether current demand, backlog, customer activity, or AI/data-center engagement is an early signal of durable conversion rather than a one-quarter narrative. The transcript still needs follow-through in future quarters before that can be treated as proven.

The business engine appears to be demand conversion into revenue at acceptable incremental margins; the fallback needs management's KPIs and historical conversion data to grade it more precisely.

  • Management centered the story on AI, compute, or data-center demand, which is the key thesis variable to verify in future quarters.
  • Backlog and demand visibility were important to the quarter's credibility.
  • Profitability and margin durability should be treated as quality-of-revenue checks, not just headline metrics.
  • Customer renewal and new-logo activity are the clearest checks on whether demand is broadening.
  • Management's strongest emphasis appears to be around demand momentum and AI/compute-related opportunity; the useful investor question is whether that enthusiasm is backed by conversion and customer economics.

The tone reads constructive but still needs investor skepticism. Management appears to have enough operating evidence to discuss momentum, but the call only becomes high-quality if the numbers support conversion, margins, cash flow, and customer breadth. Local fallback reason: model analysis failed during on-demand transcript rendering: Earnings call analyzer failed with status 403..

  • No clear dodged analyst question was detected by the local fallback; manual review should still check whether Q&A answers quantified conversion, margins, and guidance.
  • There may be a benchmark or metric-framing issue worth manual review, especially around adjusted metrics, timelines, or changed expectations.

Competitive position looks potentially improving, but not proven. Customer activity and AI/compute exposure suggest the company may be in the right demand pools; the missing proof is market-share data, pricing power, win/loss detail, and retention economics.

  • Key figure to verify: Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 is $47.6 million.
  • Key figure to verify: This is the highest quarterly revenue in AXT's history, up nearly 77% from $26.9 million in the first quarter and up 164% from $18.0 million in the second quarter of 2025.
  • Key figure to verify: To break down our Q2 2026 revenue for you by product category, Indian Phosphide was $30.7 million.
  • Key figure to verify: Indian Phosphide was $30.7 million, also the highest in our company's history, primarily from data center applications.
  • Key figure to verify: Gallium arsenide was $6.6 million.
  • The quarter appears to be moving from story to evidence: operating momentum is showing up in revenue, royalties, or backlog rather than only in management narrative.
  • Customer activity looks healthier than a one-quarter spike because the transcript points to both retention/renewal work and new-account activity.
  • AI and data-center exposure look strategically relevant rather than cosmetic, because management ties demand to compute-heavy end markets instead of treating it as a generic buzzword.
  • Profitability is a quality signal here, but the investment value depends on whether margins can hold as mix, hiring, and customer concentration evolve.
  • The main open question is conversion: AI or data-center engagement has to turn into recurring royalties, cash flow, and repeatable design wins before it deserves full credit in valuation.
  • Backlog lowers some demand uncertainty, but investors still need timing, cancellation risk, concentration, and conversion economics before treating it as de-risked revenue.
  • Margin strength is not itself a risk; the risk is whether that margin level is sustainable if revenue mix, investment spend, or pricing changes.
  • There is enough downside language in the transcript to require follow-up on execution, timing, or disclosure quality rather than reading the quarter as fully clean.

The data-center angle appears investable but still needs sizing. The call connects the company to AI or compute-heavy infrastructure demand, which is directionally positive, but the thesis should depend on how much of that activity becomes durable revenue, royalties, and cash conversion rather than on thematic exposure alone.

  • How much of the AI or data-center engagement converts into recurring royalties or repeat revenue within the next four quarters?
  • What portion of backlog is cancellable, delayed, concentrated, or dependent on a small number of customers?
  • Can current margin levels persist as mix, headcount, and product investment change?
  • Did management quantify cash conversion and operating leverage, or only highlight revenue and demand?
  • Are customer wins broad enough to imply share gain rather than a few isolated projects?

FY2026 Q2 earnings call transcript

41,579 chars

NASDAQ:AXTI Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Generated on 8/9/2026 Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's second quarter 2026 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer and Gary Fischer, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is Kenneth and I will be your coordinator today. I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT.

Leslie Green | Investor Relations

Thank you, Kenneth, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, We will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing of receipt of export permits, and list our subsidiary, Tong Mei, in Hong Kong, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity. We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties, that could cause actual events and results to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China. In addition to the factors just mentioned that may be discussed on this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at AXT.com through July 30, 2027. Also, I want to note that shortly following the close of the market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the second quarter of 2026 This information is available on the investor relations portion of our website. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fischer for a review of our second quarter 2026 results. Gary?

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Our Q2 financial results highlight an exciting inflection in our business trajectory and the beginnings of a multi-year growth phase for AXT. Revenue for the second quarter of 2026 is $47.6 million. This is the highest quarterly revenue in AXT's history, up nearly 77% from $26.9 million in the first quarter and up 164% from $18.0 million in the second quarter of 2025. To break down our Q2 2026 revenue for you by product category, Indian Phosphide was $30.7 million. also the highest in our company's history. Let me repeat that. Indian Phosphide was $30.7 million, also the highest in our company's history, primarily from data center applications. Gallium arsenide was $6.6 million. Germanium substrates were $272K. Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q2 was $10.0 million. The top five customers generated approximately 30% of total revenue and no customers were over the 10% level. Gross margin showed a substantial improvement again in the second quarter, primarily driven by an increase in total volume and a favorable product mix. Non-GAAP gross margin was 45.0% compared with 29.9% gross margin in Q1 of 2026 and 8.2% gross margin in Q2 of 2025. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, Gross margin in the second quarter was 44.9% compared with 29.6% in Q1 and 8.0% in Q2 of 2025. This is a huge, huge positive change from Q1 of 2025. Moving to operating expenses. Our total non-GAAP operating expense in Q2 was $10.2 million compared with $8.6 million in Q1 and $7.6 million in Q2 of 2025. On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q2 was 10.9 million compared with 9.6 in Q1 and 8.2 in Q2 of last year. Our non-GAAP operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 is 11.2 million compared with a non-GAAP operating loss in Q1 of $550,000 and a non-GAAP operating loss of 6.1 million in Q2 of 2025. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the second quarter of 2026 was a Leslie Green | Investor Relations: and Kenneth.

Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

Hello, Leslie. You disappeared for a second.

You're back now. Leslie Green | Investor Relations

Okay. Great. Terrific. Continue, Gary.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Am I just on the speaker on the cell phone now? Can you hear me okay?

Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

Loud and clear.

You can continue. Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Okay. For the benefit of the people listening, it's afternoon. We're in China right now, and we're at the conference room of the Tongmei headquarters, so we have a little bit of a hiccup on the phone equipment. All right. Non-GAAP operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 was $11.2 million, compared with a non-GAAP operating loss in Q1 of 2026 of $550K and a non-GAAP operating loss of $6.1 million in Q2 of 2025. for reference, our GAAP operating line for the second quarter of 2026 was a profit of 10.4 million compared with an operating loss of 1.6 million in Q1 and an operating loss of 6.7 million in Q2 of 2025. Non-operating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the second quarter of 2026 was a net profit of 705,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today. In Q2, 2026, we return the company to profitability. We are pleased to report a non-GAAP net profit of 11.9 million or 19 cents per diluted share. This compares with the non-GAAP net loss of 585K or one cent per share loss in the first quarter and the non-GAAP net loss in Q2 of 2025 of 6.4 million or 15 cents per share loss. On a GAAP basis, net profit in Q2 is 11.1 million or 17 cents per diluted share. By comparison, net loss was 1.6 million or 3 cents per share in the first quarter and a gap net loss in Q2 of last year of 7.0 million. The weighted average diluted shares outstanding in Q2 is 63.5 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments increased by $625.6 million to 748.8 million as of June 30th. This was primarily the result of our secondary public offering of common stock, which closed on April 22nd and generated approximately $632 million before expenses. By comparison, at March 31st, our cash was $123 million. Accounts receivable increased by $4.7 million. During Q2, we signed long-term supply agreements with Casella and Coherent Under the terms of these agreements, we receive prepayments for wafers of $22.3 million and $25.4 million, respectively. These type of agreements with significant upfront cash are an additional signpost regarding the important use of indium phosphide for high-speed optical data transmission required in AI data centers. Morris is going to talk more about this in a moment. These prepayments are posted on our financial statements as a liability and they will be converted to revenue and the liability reduces as we ship product against these agreements. Depreciation and amortization in the second quarter was 2.5 million. Total stock comp was 0.8 million. Net inventory was up approximately 6.2 million in the second quarter to 96.3 million. And this concludes our report on financial numbers. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary Tang Mei in China, on June 26, Tang Mei notified the Stock Exchange that it was moving its applications for an initial public offering on the Star Market. This was accepted in July. AXT and Tang Mei will now instead transfer our efforts towards listing on the Hong Kong Exchange, which will likely take about a year to complete. We continue to believe that an IPO in China is a highly beneficial in expanding our capacity in China and the most efficient and effective way to support the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure build-out. This concludes our China development of its semiconductor supply chain to meet increased China-based demand for Indian fossilized substrates. Tang Mei's move to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange creates a redemption right for the $49 million invested by the PE funds back in 2021. However, we've been in discussion with them and currently they all wish to continue their investment and not be redeemed. We have sufficient cash to redeem investments should they be requested. With that, I'll turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris. Thank you, Gary.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

This is an incredibly exciting time for AXC. As Gary mentioned, we have reached an inflection point in our business where the customer demand is extremely strong for our immune phosphate material. We are committed to doubling our immune phosphate capacity in 2026, and I'm pleased to report that we are ahead of the schedule in that effort. But more importantly, I can now report to you that our revenue opportunity for Indian Phosphine is on track to more than triple by the end of 2026, with continuous significant expansion expected in 2027. This is happening as a result of three factors. First, we're being able to expand capacity at a faster rate than we expected. Second, we're making significant strides in driving our manufacturing productivity with new crystal rose furnace designs and increase our output. And third, our customers are moving to larger diameter substrates and higher value products, resulting in favorable pricing trends. The combination of these factors is driving a step function increase in our revenue in Q2. We recorded our highest quarterly revenue and highest Indian phosphate revenue in our history with a backlog that continues to grow and now is well over $100 million. Customer demand continues to outpace supply no matter how fast we add capacity. Broadly, the deployment of optical connectivity in AI data center is accelerating as hydroscalers scale GPU dense architectures and look for higher speed, lower power photonics to move data more efficiently. In the near term, we're seeing high demand from the industry migration to 800G and 1.6G transceivers modules, for which in the phosphate-based lasers and detectors are essential for higher-performance optical links. Longer-term, hyperscalers are advancing towards near-packaged and co-packaged optics, which will continue to drive increasing demand for our material. Overall, these trends point to a durable, long-term build-out of denser optical infrastructure and a multi-year demand cycle for our indium phosphide. As many of you are aware, the competitive landscape for high quality neophosphate is limited to just a few players due to primarily the very high technical barrier to entry. Among our peers, we believe AXC is the strongest position to increase manufacturing capacity quickly and at a scale and quality needed to move the needle in our industry. and meet our customers requirements. Our team in China has done an outstanding job in bringing up new lines in our existing facilities as well as innovating to drive higher productivity. In working closely with our direct customers as well as our major end customers to understand their expected demand and roadmaps, were well into the planning process to double our capacity again in 2027 in an adjacent location. This will make AXC by far the largest in the phosphide producer in the world. In addition to growing our manufacturing footprint, we have also made great strides in development of our six inch in the phosphide capability. are exponentially more difficult to produce in volume than three or four inch wafers. And I'm very pleased and proud of our team's progress towards this new offering. I also want to thank our customers who have partnered with us throughout this process. We're excited to support them as we move forward with our own capability. Partnership is a cornerstone of our business philosophy through which we have been able to deliver game-changing innovation. This dates back to the formation of joint ventures that today make up a unique and vertically integrated supply chain. and in the last 10 years, our work with two globally recognized Indian Phosphorite customers helped us to raise the bar even further our manufacturing and business processes to be able to support the rigorous standard of some of the most prestigious companies in the world. Strong partnership lifts innovation and enables both partners to achieve more. That is why one of the most rewarding aspects of our unfolding chapter in our history is the extent to which we have been able to partner with leading customers around the world who are defining the next generation of data center connectivity. We recently signed strategic long-term supply agreement with Casella and Coherence. and this week we're very pleased to announce an agreement with Lumentin. These agreements deepens our relationship with these important customers working shoulder to shoulder with them to help them deliver on their own vision and roadmaps. In addition, they gave us the even greater sense of conviction that our capacity build-out is merited and necessary. From a geographic perspective, the massive AI infrastructure build-out and the planned capacity capex surrounded by cloud services and AI platform providers in the US is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers. as well as high-speed photo detectors. We believe that today our materials are being used in multiple U.S. hyperscalers. We expect that end-customer use will continue to broaden. We're also seeing huge growth in China as China moves to accelerate its capability throughout the AI supply chain. Our revenue related to any phosphate-based lasers market in China more than doubled in Q2 from the acquired quarter. And we expect continued strong growth in Q3. This highlights China's increasing investment in AI infrastructure supply chain for the global market. This is a great opportunity for AFC as there's no permit required to ship our product within China. turn into gallium arsenide. In Q2, demand for semiconducting wafers for industrial robotics and data center laser applications grew sequentially from the prior quarter. We also continue to see demand for semi-insulating wafers for wireless RF devices and believe that we have a strong opportunity for market share expansion. Finally, Our raw material business continues to be highly strategic to our growth plan and also generated record third quarter revenue in Q2. As we reported last quarter, our subsidiary, Jing Mei, is now refining high purity Indian, which gives us direct control of a guaranteed supply of yet another critical material for our Indian phosphorus substrates. We're also investing to help Jingmei to expand their capabilities so that when AXC's demand for polymaterial grows, Jingmei will continue to provide a meaningful portion of our raw material requirements. Globally, there continues to be a great awareness of the importance of our raw material supply chain, and we are decades ahead of the Curves in Developing our Unique Integrated Supply Chain. We will continue to invest in our portfolio as we believe it is a major competitive differentiator. Now in summary, we believe AXC is entering one of the most consequential chapters in our company history. The investment we are making today in capacity, in technology, and in our unique integrated supply chain, position us to meet the extraordinary demand we see building across the optical and AI infrastructure markets. Our customer engagement is deepening, our visibility is improving, and our competitive differentiation is strong. While we remain disciplined, and thoughtful in our execution. We're confident that the groundwork we are laying now will enable transformational growth in the years to come. With that, I turn the call back to Gary for third quarter guidance. Gary?

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Morris. As of today, we have approximately 66 million in revenue that can be realized in Q3. across our substrate product lines and raw materials for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required. So 66 million. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue. We could see upside, even significant upside to this number in Q3 should we receive permits for additional orders for which we have the inventory to support. But we do not want to stress, but we do want to stress that we cannot predict the future timing of permits or success in obtaining them for any specific customer or individual order. We have delivered strong gross margin improvement over the past several quarters. Further improvement depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to the revenue mixed by product, absorption of fixed costs, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency. With regards to OpEx, we expect that it will be approximately 10.5 million in Q3 on a non-GAAP basis and approximately 11 million on a GAAP basis. With these factors in mind, we believe our non-GAAP net income will be in the range of 30 to 32 cents and GAAP net income in the range of 29 to 31 cents. We estimate share count for Q3 will be approximately 66.5 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We're glad to answer your questions now. Kenneth?

Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

Thank you so much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. Please pick up your handset when asking a question. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Tim Savageau from Northland Capital Markets. Tim, your line is open.

Please go ahead. Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Hey, well, good afternoon from here, at least. And wow, congrats on the results and the guide. My first question is about the comments on the call about, I guess, an increased target for Thank you very much. Am I right to thinking the new sort of target exiting the years is something in the neighborhood of 60 million in the phosphide capacity? And I'll follow up from there.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, that's about right, Tim. That's exactly what we're looking at here. So that's about $60 million there, thereabouts.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Great. Good answer. And then you're looking to double that. still, I guess, exiting calendar 27. So just confirmation on that. And then around the Lumentum deal, I wonder if you could, obviously you've got larger prepays, a longer term. I wonder if you could speak to maybe the overall size of that opportunity from a baseline standpoint or upside or however you want to talk about it.

Thanks and congrats again. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Thank you, Tim. So yeah, next year we're looking at doubling slightly more than doubling again, take our revenue to somewhere in the region about $130 million a quarter exiting the year. Yeah. Thank you about the the Lumentum deal. Clearly we've got some prepayments on that, but we're not discussing the total revenue impact of that deal at this moment.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Okay, thanks. I'll pass it along.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So maybe let me add one point about the capacity expansion. We are planning at least to double next year. But as you know, this target changes when, in fact, I think this year we're going to more than double. And it's because customer demand is just mounting. So we are finding, you know, whatever way to increase that capacity expansion. Although, so I'm saying although we are planning for double next year, but depends about how the business develops in the second quarter, we could find the other way to even better than that. Okay, that's my sort of in a way it's a moving target, but we think it's going to be more than double in 2027.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

The demand is moving faster than we can move. We're doing great to move fast, but the demand is even stronger.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Okay. not much faster, but you guys are moving pretty fast. But okay, thanks.

Appreciate it. Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson with Wedbush Securities. Matt, your line is open.

Please go ahead. Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Thanks for taking my question and congrats on the resulting guide. just when, obviously, you're having a whole lot more success in getting permits. And it seems like with the coherent deal, have to have certainty that you're going to get permits to ship out China given given the terms of that deal. I guess we talk about how the process is changed. And about how you have more confidence in getting these permits or what has changed?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, sure. Thanks, Matt. You know, permits always remain a bit of an issue on the back of our minds. As Gary mentioned, it's not something that we can absolutely predict both the timing and the certainty of. But we are seeing more regularity in the process, especially in certain geographic regions. So that's, you know, that's great news. And we're seeing increased demand in those geographic regions, too. So we're we're focusing now, even with greater intensity on capacity and allocation. But yeah, right now, the permits, as I say, we're seeing will see more regularity in certain geographic regions. And we're driving more and more permit applications through the Ministry of Commerce.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Awesome. That's really helpful. Second question, Gary. MyMath has gross margins staying relatively stable in Q3. Is that roughly the right way to think about things? and I guess as part of that, is there any more, given how tight Indian Phosphide seems, is there any more room for price appreciation in our models?

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Well, it is, you know, a moving target. And of course, you know, I know you guys are going to quote to me that I would always say, okay, you can go to 35%. but that's not management's target. Management's target is a number that begins with four. I'm delighted that we got here as fast as we did. I think I would recommend stick close to what we're at right now. But I have to say again, management's target is better than that. And let's see what we can do. There's, you know, when you add more volume, that helps. on your gross margin because the fixed costs get absorbed over more units. And also when you add more volume in manufacturing business, you get better at it. So we're just experiencing a lot of positive influences right now to push this over 40%. And stay at 45% for now, but put your seatbelts on.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Well, I can't help myself, but make a comment. You know, I'm a CEO, but I know my member, okay? Look, everybody knows our Indian Phosphorite business has better margin than the other two businesses, the gallium oxide and JVs, okay? As we grow for next quarter, it's obviously all the growth happening in Indian Phosphorite. So just by simple math, The growth margins could be better.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Right, because the sales of any phosphate is increasing, and the other stuff is not increasing as fast. So we're optimistic. That's right. Yeah, but we try and be conservative on this kind of a discussion.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, I want to add another point as well. The market is moving to larger diameters here too. We're seeing a migration from two inch to three inch, three inch to four inch. And of course, now there's a big push towards six inch for the future. This gives us a great opportunity to increase our gross margins.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, let's not spend all the bullets, but let me give you another one because the demand is so strong. The whole eating fast food line is fully utilized. Let me give you an example. In the past, some of the smaller diameter two-inch, they are not in favor, so they are not sold out. And the big demand is on three-inch. Now, because the demand is so strong, the customer are forced or they want everything. So whatever we can produce, we can sell. That also will help us in terms of margin.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

all of that answers my question.

Thank you so much. Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig Callum. Richard, your line is open.

Please go ahead. Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Well, hi guys. Thanks for taking my questions and I'll add congratulations on an excellent quarter. Keep up the great work here.

Charles Xu | Analyst, Needham

I guess my first question is, Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: The language you used for the backlog maybe was slightly different, but you used the same number of 100 million. I think you're just saying a lot more than 100 million. I wonder if you could clarify that number any more and then specifically comment how much of your calendar 27 is covered by backlog.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

I'm going to let Tim answer that. So go ahead, Tim.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, I don't want to go into a lot of details about how big exactly our backlog is, but I can tell you that it is growing, and I can tell you it continues to grow, even as we ship more material. So demand just completely outpaces our ability to increase capacity, even though we've increased capacity, or we're about to increase capacity 3x this year, just simply can't keep up with it. So Backlog continues to grow, as I say, beyond $100 million right now. In terms of 2027, yeah, we're covered with Backlog going out into 2027. Obviously, a lot of our customers, if we could deliver the majority of that today, they would take it today. But that does cover going out into 2027. And of course, we have these long-term supply agreements. that take us out into 2027 and beyond as well. So we've got a lot of next year and beyond covered with LTSAs and even in some cases backlog.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Look, I think the other answer why we're not giving out the backlog perhaps is that we are not taking orders if customer wants to place the order. We are looking at whether we can deliver because once we take the order, we're going to put them on the production queue. Right now, it's full. So it's difficult to know how much the backlog is. In fact, I think if we open up the floodgate, it's going to be huge. So we're not counting on it. And as far as 2027 is concerned, I think if we want to sign up a lot of, well, team is working on other long term supply agreement. But that doesn't mean that 2027 is all spoken off. That is, we are measuring how much we're expanding, how much we want to sign up for long term supply agreement. And some of them we want to reserve for, you know, customers coming in. So I think right now order is not a problem. Mostly is how fast we can grow.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay, I appreciate that perspective. A couple more questions for me. I'll jump on the line here. The next one is on D&D Phosphide here, and specifically, how much of that was shipped into China versus the rest of the world? And how do you see that going over the next, say, couple of years or so? And I ask this because you've obviously signed up an agreement with a Chinese laser company, but then also two North American-based laser companies here. and while I'm sure those aren't the only customers you're going to have for Indian Phosphide here, I'd love to get a sense of how this ratio changes over time. Kind of what's the peak from China and what do you see as kind of that long term stable share between China and the rest of the world?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

That's a great question, Richard. So there's certainly a lot of market opportunity in China right now. As we've said, we're doubling our capacity, actually tripling our capacity in 2026. And China is definitely taking some of that capacity as we move forward. What we're seeing with the permits and with the demand globally, this is a global market, remember, we are seeing growth across all sectors. So China right now is definitely above 50% of our revenue in Q2. I would anticipate that we would see a revenue split moving forward somewhere in that 40 to 60 range as we build up both capacity and we build up long-term supply agreements both within China and throughout the rest of the world. So yeah, I would kind of model that as China being 40% to 60% of our revenue.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Okay. Thanks for that, Tim. And last question for me is on the topic of gross margins. I know there was a previous question on this topic. I'm going to ask the question slightly different, Gary, which is, you know, and I think even Morris commented today, and we've heard this many times in the past, we're going to classify it as a positive mixed dynamic and only seemingly getting better given the pricing comments you've mentioned here. but also we're going to see from your capacity expansion some depreciation costs here. And so we'd love to get a sense of from the number you just reported in the second quarter, which is utterly fantastic, how much more can it go? Can you get to a number that starts with a five?

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Well, let's see. Can we get there? uh it would be a record for us that's for sure but yes uh further increases in volume and improvements in productivity as well as continued favorable mix moving towards larger diameter substrates um we we should definitely be be targeting a number that begins with the five but i don't want you to Richard okay Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group: Let us get there first. That's fine. I won't. I just want to know what, you know, we all think of these.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Don't race us to the finish line.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

I won't, and I never have, Gary. I just want to understand how close to the asymptote we are.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

You've been with us for a long time to cover us, and obviously this is, as Morris said, sort of more than an inflection point. This is a huge step up. So, so we're, you know, we'll try and be as specific and accurate as we can. But it's, it's, it's moving pretty fast. So, yeah, we want to be careful what we tell you. So, but yeah, we're going to target something at the end of the file.

So. Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital Group

Understood. Makes sense. And that's all the questions for me. Thank you. Thanks, Rishi. Kenneth, next.

Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

Your next question comes from the line of Charles Xu with Needham. Charles, your line is open.

Please go ahead. Charles Xu | Analyst, Needham

Hi. Good morning. I guess you guys are in China right now. So the first question I have regarding the capacity exiting the year, raising from basically 35 per quarter, 35 million per quarter to 60 and the next year basically raising from 17 million per quarter to 130 million per quarter. Are those numbers correct? And I think previously on the previous capacity numbers you plan to spend, well, I'm looking at my numbers, 14 million CapEx this year, 100 million CapEx next year. Do you, what's the new CapEx number? Because it does look like the, The capacity growth has upsized a lot. I want to get some thoughts on CapEx.

Thank you. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, thanks, Charles. So the capacity is growing faster than we thought, certainly in terms of revenue. That comes out from a number of factors, as Morris said. We've been able to accelerate the actual physical capacity that we have here. We are moving to larger diameter substrates, which of course helps the revenue. And we're seeing greater productivity. As Gary mentioned, moving to larger and larger volumes increases the productivity of the facility. We've seen this time and time again. So part of the capacity increase that we're seeing here isn't just a CapEx spend, but it's a productivity and a product mix change here. And that's what's really allowing us to grow the revenue quicker than we anticipated. So there's a lot going on here. Now, when you're looking at CapEx spend to get this additional capacity, there is actually not a lot of additional capex spend here. You know, as I said, as we're gaining capacity through other factors rather than just hardware deployment, it means that we can gain capacity without huge additional capex spend on that.

Charles Xu | Analyst, Needham

Okay, so basically it sounds like they are reaffirming the the CAPEX plan you previously communicated. Is that right?

That's correct. Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

That's correct.

Charles Xu | Analyst, Needham

Okay. Okay. The second question, once again, on backlog, you know, Morris, I understand what you said. You only want to book the order. That's what I heard. You only want to book the order. Only a booked order can be put in backlog when you you can commit to ship to the customers given that you are probably still trying to catch up with the demand by increasing supply. 100 million plus backlog, but I think I'm looking at you're already shipping 30 plus million. This quarter looks like implied for September quarter, you probably will be able to ship a 50 million I wonder if you can, you know, give us a little bit more, how much more than 100 million you actually can see, because it sounds a little bit too low to me that your backlog only covers a little bit over two quarters of the next two quarters of the expected in your falsified revenue at the implied Q3 run rate. So want to get some thoughts, what exactly is your visibility now? and why don't you book more orders and we would like to see maybe the backlog can be a little bit higher than what you just communicated.

Thank you. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, the backlog, as I say, we're not giving actual backlog numbers out here. I can say that it's well over 100 million. It exceeds two quarters for sure. I just don't want to give out too much information about that at this time. And the backlog is also covered with a lot of long-term supply agreements that are in place. There's a lot of commitment going out well beyond two quarters, both in terms of backlog and long-term supply agreements. So I really don't worry that this is a short-term thing. And remember, a lot of this backlog here is a course, is a factor of the permits as we wait for permits. And it doesn't include a lot of the China business. So we can turn the China business a lot quicker than we can turn the permitting business. As Gary said, permits are certainly getting freer, they're getting quicker, but it still takes time to apply for a permit. and we cannot apply for a permit without an order in place.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

So let me comment on the backlog issue. The backlog, when our visibility was not good, then usually it's only one quarter or maybe two quarters issue. But right now, visibility is so good that it extends out three or four quarters. So it's not a fair comparison in a way. and the other thing is that we are actually, honestly, we're not taking orders. When customers give us their demand, we look at what we can, you know, plan the production capacity will be and talk to customers about, okay, you can place this order because we have now planned capacity to accommodate this order. But beyond that, we are not taking orders. The backlog can be much bigger if we take all the orders, but then we're not expanding our capacity. So why are we taking an order? You understand what I'm saying? So it doesn't make any sense to give you, oh, we could have $150 million back order. It's not the same measure anymore.

Charles Xu | Analyst, Needham

Got it. So, Morris, just to clarify, backlog is not that quote unquote issue. I think you've proven that's not an issue. Just want to clarify on that. But, okay, maybe a third question I have, maybe a technology question, maybe for Morris. Morris, you guys also have a pretty strong Galleon Austinized profit line. And I'm sure you've heard about, for potential use of Vixo for scale-up rather than use indium phosphide for scale-up. It's a shorter distance, and Vixo probably has some advantages there. And I wonder if you have any customer discussion around Vixo, around maybe supplying them the gallium austenite substrates there, and how are any of the conversations going so far?

Thank you. Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we have customers in China who are developing VIXO solutions. And in fact, that is a U.S. customer also talking to us about using Galleon Assay for VIXO solutions, correct?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, correct. We're currently a supplier to Galleon Arsenal VIXOs for two large data center companies, laser companies. So yeah, we do have some visibility out there. And we are seeing that these technologies coexist, right? So the people that are deploying gallium arsenide Vixels are also very, very strongly focused on indium phosphide as well. I'm seeing more focus on the indium phosphide side of the business than the Vixels. But as I say, the VIXL technology has been out there for a long time and I don't see it going away. I see in Indian phosphide lasers, silicon photonics and gallium arsenide based VIXLs coexisting in this marketplace.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

So from what I understand, looks like the speed is the killer or is in favor of the Indian phosphide. I think it's more difficult to reach 200G, both in terms of laser emitter as well as detectors. So when you go to 200G, it has to be indium phosphide detectors and also indium phosphide laser work better. Well, I am in favor of indium phosphide for sure. The reason is that indium phosphide, we got more margins out of the this supply chain, and we are a dominant player in the classifying.

So that's the answer. Charles Xu | Analyst, Needham

Yeah, thanks, Maurice and Tim for the insight.

Thank you. Appreciate the answers. Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

We have another question from Tim Savageau from Northland Capital Markets. Tim, your line is open.

Please go ahead. Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Hey, thanks for the follow-up. wanted to kind of stick with that one question, one follow-up thing before. I suppose that's somewhat of an outlier. But the question is, and maybe this sort of syncs up with your China commentary, to what extent were the new deals, long-term supply agreements you've announced in recent weeks, contributors either to the Q2 results or Q3 guide or do we have a fair bit of that in front of us?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

That's a great question, Tim. The latter is the answer. We have a fair bit of that in front of us. We're supplying materials to back up those long-term supply agreements to get qualified and get ready for them. So they don't move the needle too much on Q2. We're going to see a bigger impact in Q3. and then we're going to see further growth moving out through Q4 and into next year and beyond.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

And the Casella deal.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Great.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Doesn't start until 2027.

Gary Fischer | Chief Financial Officer

Right. That's a good point. That's not even happening right now in terms of that contract, even though we are selling stuff to them, but.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Great. I probably shouldn't have known that, but anyway, I appreciate that.

Cheers. Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Greene for closing remarks.

Leslie Green | Investor Relations

Thank you for participating in our conference call. We will be participating in the Needham Virtual Investor Conference in August and the B. Reilly Securities Consumer and TMT Conference in September, and we hope to see many of you there. As always, feel free to contact us if you'd like to set up a call, and we look forward to speaking with you in the near future.

Kenneth | Conference Call Coordinator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect. jsPDF 3.0.3 D:20260809225654-00'00'

Research summary and source transcript

readyJun 10, 2026

AXT reported Q1 2026 revenue of $26.9 million, up from $19.4 million in Q1 2025, driven by strong indium phosphide demand from data center and AI infrastructure applications. Gross margin improved substantially to 29.9% non-GAAP from negative 6.1% a year ago, reflecting better product mix and utilization. Management emphasized record backlog exceeding $100 million for indium phosphide, progress on capacity expansion to double indium phosphide output by end-2026, and ongoing efforts to secure U.S. export permits, while advancing its integrated supply chain strategy via Jing Mei raw material refinement.

Management knows today that the company has secured a record indium phosphide backlog exceeding $100 million, is on track to double indium phosphide capacity by end-2026 via brownfield expansion, and is making tangible progress in qualifying with tier-one customers and hyperscalers for long-term supply agreements — including direct engagement with end-users. These developments suggest a durable demand inflection tied to AI infrastructure build-out that is not yet fully reflected in the market’s valuation, particularly as export permitting improvements and six-inch wafer readiness could unlock multi-year growth beyond current guidance.

Indium phosphide wafer demand driven by AI/data center optical transceiver growth, capacity expansion execution, and export permit timing for U.S. shipments.

  • Indium phosphide backlog exceeding $100 million
  • Capacity expansion to double output by end-2026
  • Progress on U.S. export permits and global supply chain diversification
  • Advancement of six-inch indium phosphide technology and customer qualifications
  • Integrated supply chain strategy via Jing Mei raw material control
  • Gross margin improvement driven by product mix and utilization
  • Record indium phosphide backlog and customer forecasts at record levels
  • Progress in qualifying with tier-one customers and hyperscalers, including end-user engagement
  • Advancement of six-inch phosphide for higher-speed optical devices
  • Jing Mei’s high-purity indium refinement as a supply chain differentiator
  • Confidence in achieving GAAP and non-GAAP profitability in Q2 2026

Management exhibited a confident, direct, and credible tone throughout the call, particularly in discussing operational progress, backlog strength, and capacity expansion plans. CEO Morris Young used vivid but grounded analogies (e.g., 'choo-choo train') to explain supply chain integration, while CFO Gary Fisher provided specific, measurable guidance on capex, revenue visibility, and profitability targets without overpromising. Executives acknowledged uncertainties — especially around export permits — and avoided vague or hyperbolic claims, instead grounding optimism in observable trends like customer qualifications, backlog growth, and margin improvement. The tone reflected disciplined execution rather than speculative enthusiasm.

  • There may be at least one Q&A answer that needs manual review for a possible dodge or lack of numerical follow-through.
  • There may be a benchmark or metric-framing issue worth manual review, especially around adjusted metrics, timelines, or changed expectations.

AXT appears to be winning competitively, with management emphasizing its unique ability to scale indium phosphide capacity quickly due to owned crystal growth furnaces, critical raw material supply via Jing Mei, and existing manufacturing footprint. The company notes it is in a 'strongest position to grow capacity' amid supply constraints and is gaining traction with tier-one customers and hyperscalers who are actively encouraging suppliers to enter long-term agreements with AXT. This suggests a differentiated and strengthening competitive position in the indium phosphide substrate market.

  • Q1 2026 revenue: $26.9 million (up from $19.4M in Q1 2025)
  • Non-GAAP gross margin: 29.9% (vs. 21.5% in Q4 2025 and -6.1% in Q1 2025)
  • Indium phosphide backlog: over $100 million (record level)
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and investments: $123 million as of March 31, 2026 (down from $128.4M at Dec 31, 2025)
  • Q2 2026 revenue visibility: $34 million with existing permits or no permit required
  • Expected non-GAAP net income for Q2 2026: $0.06 to $0.08 per share
  • Successful scaling of indium phosphide capacity to $35M/quarter run rate by end-2026
  • Receipt of U.S. export permits enabling full utilization of expanded capacity
  • Conversion of customer qualifications into long-term supply agreements with hyperscalers
  • Ramp of six-inch indium phosphide production supporting next-gen optical roadmap
  • Continued growth in China-based AI infrastructure demand for indium phosphide substrates
  • Unpredictability of U.S. export permit timing and approval, which could delay revenue recognition
  • Dependence on indium phosphide demand from AI/data center build-out, which may face cyclical or geopolitical headwinds
  • Execution risk in scaling capacity via new furnace installations and supply chain integration
  • Potential pricing pressure if global competition increases in indium phosphide substrate market
  • Reliance on a concentrated customer base, with top five customers generating ~32% of revenue

Data center applications are a direct and primary driver of AXT’s current performance, with management explicitly stating that Indian Phosphide revenue of $13.6 million in Q1 2026 was 'primarily from data center applications.' The company cites massive AI infrastructure build-out by U.S. hyperscalers and cloud providers as a key demand driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers and high-speed photo detectors, noting its material is already being used in multiple U.S. hyperscalers. Growth in China’s AI supply chain is also noted, with China-related indium phosphide revenue more than doubling in Q1 and expected to double again in Q2. This establishes a clear, material link between AI/data center capital expenditure and AXT’s substrate demand, with no speculative or indirect exposure — the impact is explicit and central to the business outlook.

  • What is the expected timeline and probability of securing U.S. export permits for indium phosphide shipments?
  • How will the mix of indium phosphide wafer sizes (3-inch, 4-inch, 6-inch) evolve in the backlog over the next 6–12 months?
  • What specific milestones must be met to convert customer qualifications into long-term supply agreements?
  • What is the expected gross margin profile at varying levels of indium phosphide revenue utilization and product mix?
  • How will the Jing Mei raw material initiative contribute to cost stability and margin expansion over the next 18 months?
  • What are the key assumptions behind the $35M/quarter indium phosphide capacity target by end-2026, and what risks could delay it?

FY2026 Q1 earnings call transcript

43,911 chars

NASDAQ:AXTI Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript Generated on 6/6/2026 Tracy | Conference Coordinator: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fisher, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portion of the call. My name is Tracy, and I will be your coordinator today. After today's prepared remarks, we will host a question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 to raise your hand. I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT. Leslie, go ahead.

Leslie Green | Investor Relations, AXT

Thank you, Tracy, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements, regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing of receipt of export permits, our plan to list our subsidiary, Tang Mei, in China, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity. We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China. In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic report filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at AXT.com through April 30, 2027. Also, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the first quarter of 2026. This information is available on our website at AXT.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fisher for a review of our first quarter results. Gary?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the first quarter of 2026 was $26.9 million, compared with $23.0 million in the fourth quarter of 2025 and $19.4 million in the first quarter of 2025 last year. To break down our Q126 revenue for you by product category, Indian Phosphide was $13.6 million, primarily from data center applications. Gallium arsenide was 5.4 million. Germanium substrates were 200,000. Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q1 was 7.6 million. In the first quarter of 2026, revenue from Asia Pacific was 78%, Europe was 21%, and North America was 1%. The top five customers generated approximately 32% of total revenue, and no customers were over the 10% level. Gross margin showed a substantial improvement in the first quarter. Non-GAAP gross margin was 29.9% compared with 21.5% gross margin in Q4 of 2025 and a negative 6.1% gross margin in Q1 of 2025 last year. For those who preferred to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the first quarter was 29.6% compared with 20.9% in Q4 and a negative 6.4% in Q1 of 2025. Moving to operating expenses, total non-GAAP operating expense in Q1 was $8.6 million compared with $7.5 million in Q4 and $8.5 million in Q1 of 2025. On a GAAP basis, total operating expenses in Q1 was $9.6 million compared with $8.7 million in Q4 of 2025 and $9.0 million in Q1 of 2025. Our non-GAAP operating loss for the first quarter of 2026 was $550,000. compared to the non-GAAP operating loss in Q4 of 2025 of $2.6 million and a non-GAAP operating loss of $9.6 million in Q1 of 2025. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the first quarter of 2026 was a net loss of $1.6 million compared with an operating loss of $3.8 million in Q4 of 2025 and an operating loss of $10.3 million in Q1 of 2025. Non-operating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the first quarter of 2026 was a net loss of $35,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today. In Q1 of 2026, we made substantial progress towards profitability. We had a non-GAAP net loss of $585,000 or $0.01 per share compared to the non-GAAP net loss of $2.3 million or $0.05 per share in the fourth quarter. and non-GAAP net loss in Q1 of 2025 of $8.2 million or $0.19 per share. On a GAAP basis, the net loss in Q1 was $1.6 million or $0.03 per share compared to a net loss of $3.6 million or $0.08 a share in the fourth quarter and $8.8 million or $0.20 per share last year in Q1 of 2025. The weighted average basic shares outstanding in Q1 of 2026 was 53.3 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments decreased by 5.1 million to 123 million as of March 31st. By comparison, at December 31st, it was 128.4 million. Accounts receivable increased by 5.2 million, almost exactly the same as the change in cash. Depreciation and amortization in the first quarter was 2.4 million. Total stock comp was 1.0 million. Net inventory was up approximately 8.5 million for the first quarter to 90.2. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary, Tongmei, in China on the star market in Shanghai, we remain very interested in completing the IPO, particularly in light of the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure build-out in China and China's development of its semiconductor supply chain, which is fueling increased China-based demand for Indian phosphide substrates. We have continued to keep our IPO application current, and Tang Mei remains in process as a part of a much more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago. Though the current geopolitical environment is dynamic, Tang Mei is considered a Chinese company and continues to be regarded in China as a good IPO candidate. We will keep you informed of any updates. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets. Morris?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Thank you, Gary. This is an incredibly exciting time for AXT. As many of you are aware, last week we completed a capital raise for $632.5 million in support of Tomei's indium phosphide capacity expansion, as well as R&D investment in new products like 6-inch indium phosphide and other working capital needs. With our backlog of orders and customer forecasts achieving record levels, we are laser-focused on adding capacity to support customer requirements. I'm pleased to report that we are running ahead of our plan to double our unit phosphate capacity this year from Q4 of 2025 levels. Our capability to scale up quickly is unique among our peers. Unlike our competitors, AXC designs and builds our own crystal gold furnaces, has our own supply of critical raw materials, and has the manufacturing space in place to achieve our expansion goal this year. As you can imagine, longer-term capacity planning is one of the most important discussions we're having today with customers and major supply chain players in our space. The message we are having for them is this, AXT is stepping up. Beyond our 2026 capacity expansion, we're planning to double our Indian phosphate capacity again in 2027, with a new facility near our current one that we will be dedicated to ending phosphide wafer production. Our 2028 planning is also underway, and we expect to expand again meaningfully. This is an industry in which skill matters. The barrier to entry are high, even for most skilled manufacturers. As the market continues to grow, capacity has become a critical enabler. What we are hearing from the industry sources and echo from our customers is the expectation that the market for optical components will increase significantly in the coming years, driving a four to six times increase in substrate market overall in the next three to five years. driven by both scale-out and scale-up applications. Beyond plug-and-go transceivers, we're seeing a very large developing market for CPO co-packaged optics. We are actively engaging in discussions with customers about their technical and timing requirements and believe this could represent an other inflection point in our business beginning in late 2027 and beyond. With this massive growth cycle ahead of us, we are actively working with a multitude of players from our direct customers to the end customers with whom we have not historically had direct relationships. We are there to understand their longer-term requirements and to align our growth and innovation plans accordingly. This will be a thoughtful and measured process, but we believe we are in a best position competitively to support and enable our industry in meeting its current and future needs. Over the last few quarters, the expansion of our Indian Phosphate customer base has been gratifying. We're now supporting nearly all leading customers in the optical space. This includes tier one laser manufacturers and optical transceiver module makers, both around the globe and in China. In alignment with our customers' technical requirements and roadmaps, we're making important progress on our six-inch phosphide product for both iron-doped and self-adopted specifications. A significant part of our capacity expansion will be focused on six-inch crystal growth technology to support a planned roadmap of six-inch capability by our customers. We're excited to be able to demonstrate the technological advantage of our low EPD wafers as the market moves to optical devices with higher speeds and greater sophistication for both scale-up and scale-out applications. Now turning to Q1. Export permits in our first quarter came in slightly better than our guidance and are off to a solid start in Q2. Gary will take you through our full guidance in a few minutes. but we're expecting to achieve sequential revenue growth in Q2, driven primarily by growth in indium phosphide. In fact, Q2 will be expected to be our largest quarter for indium phosphide in AXC's history. This derives from an indium phosphide backlog that has now reached a new high of over $100 million. As we mentioned last quarter, customers are giving us more visibility into their expected demand and working closely with them in this supply-constrained environment to meet their need as we continue to expand our capacity. From a geographic demand perspective, the massive AI infrastructure build-out And planned cat-back spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the U.S. is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers, as well as high-speed photo detectors. We believe that today our material is being used in multiple U.S. hyperscalers. We expect that end customers use will continue to broaden. We're also seeing significant growth in China as China moves to accelerate its capability throughout the AI supply chain. Our revenue related to any phosphate-based laser market in China more than doubled in Q1 from the prior quarter, and we expect them to double again in Q2. This highlights China's increasing involved investment in AI infrastructure supply chain for the global market. This is a great opportunity for AXT, as there is no permit required to ship our product within China. Turn into gallium arsenide. In Q1, demand for semiconducting wafers for industry robotics and data center lasers applications all held steady. from the prior quarter. We continue to see demand for semi-insulating wafers for wireless RF devices and believe that we have a strong opportunity for market share expansion. However, this is gated primarily by our ability to obtain X4 licenses, which came in light in Q1. Finally, our raw material business continues to be a crown jewel in our growth strategy. We're pleased to report that our subsidiary, Jing Mei, has begun to refine high purity Indian, which gives us direct control of a guaranteed supply of other critical material for Indian phosphide substrates. We're also investing to help Jing Mei expand its capability So that our AXC's demand grows, Jingmei will continue to provide a meaningful portion of our raw material requirements. Globally, there continues to be a greater awareness of the importance of earth's materials, and we are decades ahead of the curve in developing our unique integrated supply chain. We continue to invest in our portfolio as we believe is a major competitive differentiator. In summary, we believe AXT is entering one of the most consequential chapters in our company's history. The investment we are making today in capacity, in technology, and in our unique integrated supply chain positions us to meet extraordinary demand we see building across the optical, and AI infrastructure markets. Our customer engagement is deepening, our visibility is improving, and our competitive differentiation is strong. While we remain disciplined and thoughtful in our execution, we're confident that the groundwork are laying out now will enable us for meaningful growth in the years to come. With that, I turn the call back to Gary for our second quarter guidance. Gary?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Thank you, Morse. To reiterate a couple of key points from Morse's commentary, we are seeing a strong increase in our Indian phosphide wafer demand related to AI and the ongoing data center upgrade cycle. Given the geopolitical complexities surrounding this market trend, our customer base is diversifying and expanding. and customers are placing longer-term orders and providing greater visibility into their needs. With all of these positive market and AXT-specific growth drivers, the most significant single factor to our growth in Q2 and beyond is the success and timing of getting export permits. Therefore, guiding for future revenue is somewhat tricky for us right now as we cannot predict future timing of permits or our success in obtaining them for any customer or individual order. But drawing on what we know and what we've experienced thus far in the export permitting process, we can offer the following insight into our expectations for Q2. As of today, we have approximately $34 million in revenue that can be realized in Q2 across our substrate product lines and raw materials for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q2. We could see upside, even significant upside, to this number in Q2 should we receive permits for additional orders for which we have the inventory to support. But we do want to stress that the timing for permit issuance is not predictable, nor in our control, and doesn't align with our quarterly reporting. We continue to focus on gross margin improvement. Further improvement depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to revenue mixed by product, absorption of fixed costs, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency. With regards to OPEX, we expect that it will be approximately $9.3 million in Q2 on a non-GAAP basis and approximately $10 million on a GAAP basis. With these factors in mind, we expect to achieve profitability on both a GAAP and non-GAAP basis in Q2. We believe our non-GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.06 to $0.08, and our GAAP net income will be in the range of $0.05 to $0.07. We estimate share count for Q2 will be approximately 63.5 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We'll be glad to answer your questions now. Tracy?

Tracy | Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star 1 now to raise your hand. To withdraw your question, press star 1 again. We ask that you pick up your handset when asking a question to allow for optimum sound quality. If you are muted locally, please remember to unmute your device. Finally, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by now while we compile the Q&A roster. Your first question comes from the line of Tim Savageau with Northland Securities. Your line is open, please go ahead.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Securities

Hey, good afternoon and congrats on the step up in backlog and the strong guidance for next quarter and indium phosphide. I guess my first question, you know, you mentioned backlog and customer forecasts at record levels, and we certainly saw that with $100 million in backlog. With regards to long-term capacity planning with customers, you know, are you at the point of, you know, coming to any sort of long-term supply agreements with various customers and And if so, you know, what's the kind of, what sort of timing might you expect on that? Thanks. Tim?

I'll follow up. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Yeah. Yeah. Thanks, Tim. Yes, we are talking to a number of customers right now on long-term supply agreements as we build our capacity out and try and understand where their demand is going. Nearly all of the larger customers in this space are talking about long-term supply agreements with us. And we expect to come to resolution with some of those in the very near future.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Securities

Great. And just following up on that, sorry, go ahead.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Oh, no. I was just saying it's your turn, Tim.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Securities

Tim S. Okay. Roger that. Just an update. You'd mentioned last quarter that you were developing some relationships with Tier 1 customers or Tier 1 suppliers who hadn't necessarily been close relationships or customers over time. I wonder if we can get an update on that, and I have one more follow-up after that.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Yeah, thanks. That's going really well, actually. We've got qualification wafers in with a lot of customers, and we're finding paths and avenues to get wafers into a lot of these Tier 1 customers. You know, as we see this market grow, there's a lot of opportunity for us, And we've said in the past that we've really been focused on these next-generation technology products that require high-quality material that, frankly, only AXT can build and can supply. And of course, with emerging supply chain constraints with indium phosphide, we are in the strongest position to grow capacity. So we're qualifying and we're supplying wafers to a lot of new tier one customers in this field. So it's exciting times for us.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Yeah, I want to add one point because I think, you know, Tim, you are the French soldier. You're talking to them. But from my perspective, I started to hear, let's say, three months ago was some of the tier one customers. But now I'm starting to hear even add on to it, is the end hyperscalers we're hearing. In other words, the customer's customer, the end users, are also interested in seeing how we develop the supply chain guarantee for their growth plan.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Yeah, that's correct, Morris. That's a good point. So there's been a lot of press releases out about long-term supply agreements into our customers. from the hyperscalers and from the hardware companies. And there's been a lot of encouragement from those hyperscalers and hardware companies for their suppliers to enter into long-term supply agreements with AXT. So that is actually driving a lot of the discussions, I think, that we're having on long-term supply agreements. And of course, it's given us a what the market demands are at the hyperscaler side of things and how that trickles down to demands for AXT. It also gives us a lot of visibility into technical demands as we move forward into high-end lasers and detectors in these new products.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Securities

Great. And that makes sense and maybe somewhat related. to those discussions. I'd be interested in an update on what you're seeing in terms of pricing for Indian phosphide substrates.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Yeah, that's a good question. Again, thanks, Tim. So what we are doing is we are raising some of our prices. We're seeing some recent pricing increase in raw materials, and specifically with India. So we're having conversations with our customers to align our costs and maintain gross margins, maintain or grow gross margins. We're also starting to globalize, or we've been globalizing our pricing. Obviously, certain geographical regions have been more aggressive in the past on price targets, especially when we're looking at the lower-end markets, such as GPON. So we're starting to globalize our markets so that it is more standardized across those geographical regions.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Well, let me add on to that. I think nevertheless, I think the pricing opportunity for us, I believe, is also the fact we're migrating more towards larger size. As you know, some of the smaller size, they are more traditional. They are more price sensitive, and they are more competitive who can fill that shoes. But when you get to 4-inch and 6-inch, and then as well as higher specification requirement, then we can really demand that's where our product shines.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Securities

Thanks very much. Appreciate it. Thanks, Tim.

Tracy | Conference Coordinator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson with Wedbush Securities. Your line is open.

Please go ahead. Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Hey, thanks for taking my question and great results. I just wanted to hone in across margins a bit. Obviously, you saw a pretty big uptick in Q1. I'm not quite getting to the peak you had in Q2. In Q2, I'm not quite getting the peak back in Q3. the COVID timeframe, but I'm getting pretty close. I guess, could you talk a little bit about how much of that is higher utilization levels versus how much of it is increased pricing and whether my math is roughly accurate?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Well, for Q1, there is some that's the result of increased pricing, but the primary drivers are the traditional two drivers that we highlight. One is volume is up, and the other is the mix is rich towards Indian Phosphide. As a matter of fact, if you look at it percentage-wise, Indian Phosphide was just a tad north over 50% of total revenue. So it's really helped in that. The pricing effects are being put in place, but we'll see the impact from your viewpoint, Matt, for your eyes. Your eyes will see that later this year.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Gary, just a Q2, Gary. If I said that the gross margins are coming in roughly around 40%, is that in the ballpark? And again, can you just talk to how much that's mixed versus utilization versus...

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Yeah, I don't have your forecast in front of me, but I think that's too aggressive. And, you know, you know us. We like to be a little bit more conservative. So, you know, we're definitely going to be crossing the 30% threshold, which we've said for several years, if we can get to $30 million in revenue and have a good mix, then we could be above 30% in gross margin. But I think it's up to you, but I'd encourage you to maybe knock that down a bit. We can talk about it maybe later. But having said that, we're both on the right direction. Gross margins should go up, and we feel very confident that they will. how fast and what we calculate is to be determined. But all the indicators are exactly what I've been saying for many years now. And the mix is rich for indium phosphide, and the volume is up. And so it's a unique sort of transition for us. Inside the company, we're very pleased, very pleased.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Yeah, I do want to add another point about this. I mean, obviously, Gary, you own the gross margin calculation, but I would argue the supply chain strategy will start to shine. You know, I always say the AXC is like a choo-choo train with a locomotive. We're chugging along when we are accelerating all the box behind us, such as our Jing Mei, for you, which makes our crucibles, high purity materials, et cetera, they're also going to check along with us. When we slow down, of course, they will crash against us. But right now is a good time. We're checking along very strongly. So you're going to see their contribution to our ability to make profit will grow too.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Got it. And then just my one follow-up is, Um, I noticed going back to the last filing that you've gotten export licenses, I think forever geography, except for the U S um, just any, any more thoughts on, on getting licenses for shipping the U S and how important is that in terms of being able to fully utilize that additional capacity you're bringing on?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Wait, wait, I don't think we're giving up United States. No, it's still pending.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Right. We're still, you know, Matt, we're still being encouraged to apply for export permits for U.S. customers, both in the U.S. and in other global regions. So, you know, at the moment, obviously, we are getting permits pretty readily for U.S. customers based in other global regions. But that, as Maurice said, that doesn't mean that we are completely stopping any work on trying to obtain permits for the US. We've been commented or we've been contacted by the Ministry of Commerce in China on a number of US applications right now to submit more data that gives us an encouraging sign that they're still looking at U.S.-based permits, and there's still a possibility to get a permit for the U.S. in the near future, as I say. So we are definitely looking at that avenue. And in the meantime, we are supplying wafers globally to other regions as well. So this is a very global supply chain, and it's a very global market. And I think we're taking advantage of all the avenues that we can.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Yeah, thanks. And I didn't mean to intimate that you weren't going to get a U.S. permit or weren't still working on it. I just wanted an update, and that was an awesome update. Thanks again, guys.

No problem. Tracy | Conference Coordinator

Just a reminder that if you would like to ask a question or a follow-up, please press star 1 to raise your hand now. Your next question comes from the line of Charles Shi with Needham. Your line is open.

Please go ahead. Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham Securities

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I want to ask you more about the capacity and the capacity-built plans here. I think your last COVID high for Indian phosphide quarterly record was 17.7 million. That was achieved in second quarter 2022. You are basically implying you're going to be at or above that level in this coming Q2, but I recall back in 2022, you probably also built above that 17.7 because back then you thought you would have Indian phosphide demand from the premium electronics company for smartphone applications. So I want to ask you this. What's the max factory output for your existing factory today? How utilized is the existing factory? And what's the expected capacity factory output once you add the next two factories? I mean, I think that's something you talked about after the following offering, and if they can provide any color on the numbers, that would be great.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Yeah, I usually take the large digit out. We usually say our highest in the phosphate revenue per quarter was $17 million. You have a very good memory, okay? And we did say in Q4, we said we have increased our capacity about 25% in Q4 of 2025. And in 2026, we're going to double that. So in my calculation, our own capacity planning, we think we're going to get about $35 million per quarter capability by the end of 2026. Don't forget, that's the end of 2026. In other words, the capacity are increasing every month, every time, as we talk about. Look, I mean, in the next quarter, any phosphate revenue is going to be up and beyond the $17 million per quarter. It will be a new record. Yeah, it will be a new record in Q2, okay? The other capacity we also mentioned about is that we are acquiring other piece of land near our existing factory in Beijing right now, which is we're in the process of negotiating buying the land and doing the design. And we're probably going to start building it. But because it's a greenfield, it will probably take us about a year, maybe year and a half, to complete that expansion. However, our capacity expansion is sort of in stages. For instance, sometimes the clean room is the most critical. Because if you don't have a clean room, you don't have no space to put in your machine. So that's very digital. But some of the crystal growth capacity is more incremental. So right now, the cleaning capacity is much greater than our crystal growth capacity. So as we speak now, we're increasing our capacity sort of gradually. But I think in the next year or so, once the green field is up for construction, then I think it would be more digital to expand our clinical capacity. I mean, do you have anything to add, Tim?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Yeah, so I just want to add a little bit. Morris talked about doubling our capacity to a rate of $35 million per quarter in indium phosphide by the end of this year. Remember, that's in a brownfield site that was once a crystal growth facility used for gallium arsenide. And as we relocated gallium arsenide, we've been able to move into that. So we've been extremely fortunate that we're in a position, I think, that nobody else in the Indian Phosphide world is in, that we can double our capacity so quickly. You know, looking into the next growth, as Maurice just mentioned, we are acquiring a facility which is right next door to us. Again, extremely fortunate. Building is already there. And that allows us to double yet again. So by the time we've completed that expansion, which should be by the end of 2027, maybe early 2028, we should be at the region of somewhere in the region of $65 to $70 million of capacity per quarter. So that really takes us to the type of capacity that we're expecting to see in our existing locations. And then as Morris mentioned again in his call or in his script as we talked earlier, we're now looking at where we need to go from here. So we're looking at other opportunities and other ways to expand beyond that, probably in a Greenfield site somewhere else.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Yeah. And that's for 2028?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Correct.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Yeah. So let me be a bit more specific as sort of the detailed guy, but $17 million, which we've already achieved, By the end of this year, we'll be at 35 million.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Per quarter.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Per quarter. So that's times four. 35, 140 million.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Per quarter?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Per year. Yeah. So we'll have that capacity at the end of 2026 to do 140 million.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Yeah, but you cannot do that because the capacity is continually increasing. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

You can't use that. Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

It's not digital. It's analog. A year later, it'll be 280 million, so. So double, double, double.

Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham Securities

Thanks. Maybe a follow-up on the capacity expansion. I think this is not like I come up with a question, but the investors do ask this question. When you think about your capacity expansion, why can't you do the China plus one type of a strategy like many companies in the global electronic supply chain? maybe you should continue to build in China to satisfy China demand, but can you build outside of China, maybe to supply to the rest of the world? And I know that this is easier said than done. There are policy reasons that may stop you from doing that, but is there anything you think from the business perspective that is preventing you from doing that and why?

Thank you. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Well, there's certainly a lot of opportunity both within China and outside of China for us to consider that. And as I said just now, we're looking to build more capacity in 2028 and beyond, which is going to be meaningful capacity expansion in 2028 and beyond. And as part of that plan, we are working closely with our customer base to understand the long-term requirements and aligning the plans globally. So our recent capital raise will be fundamental to expanding as we enter this next growth plan, which could include more capacity within China, potentially also with capacity outside of China.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

I do want to add one point. I know you don't want me to say this, okay? I tell you. The important thing to answer to investors is that adding capacity versus able to deliver wafers is two different things. You're going to hear a lot of people who are going to say, I'm going to add capacity. Look, in the first place, I tell you, it's not easy. And, you know, one question that a lot of investors are asking me is, you're going to double your capacity. Why don't you triple or quadruple? Our need is 10 times.

It's not easy. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Morris, that's a really good point. And that's really why our focus on the next two years has been focused on Beijing and increasing the capacity on our existing Beijing Tongmei site. That is... the minimum risk that we can absolutely take to get wafers out, not just to increase capacity?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Well, not only that, it's also for the good of our customers. Their demand is so aggressive, the better way or the guaranteed way to satisfy that capacity, and we're stretching, we're working very hard to answer their demand, is to do now, okay? Do we have other plans? You bet we do. We're stepping up.

Don't forget. Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham Securities

Yeah, thanks, Maurice. Like I said, easier said than done. Just felt like that's a question so common that I have to ask. So maybe last question. You talk about six inch versus maybe four inch or below. What's the shipment or maybe shipment is a bad metric here, but what's in the backlog that you're seeing that the mix between six inch and the four inch of the low right now? And want to get some thoughts around that. And if you can also, we're kind of curious about the mix between ion doped and sulfur doped that we know one is for laser, the other is for photo detector. Want to get some thoughts on What's the expected mix within that 100 million plus backlog? Thanks. That's the last question.

OK. Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

So iron-doped is coming up big time. We used to see about 10 to 1 in favor of sulfur-doped prior to this. Right now, I would say the mix, especially the large diameter, is almost like iron-doped is 40%, 60%. Correct, Tim?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

yeah so um when we look at when we look at backlog and we look at customer demand over the next um few quarters into next year and beyond um what we can see is there's still a lot of three inch out there um specifically for the laser so sulfur doped um is is still going strong on three inch there is a transition to four inch on uh n type material for the laser whereas the high-speed detector, frankly, has pretty much all transitioned to 4-inch already. So we're seeing still a lot of 3-inch coming along, a lot of transitioning over to 4-inch. And as we look into the future, of course, 6-inch is incredibly important. And there's a lot of interest and a lot of opportunity out there for 6-inch. But I'll say at this moment in time, a lot of a lot of the production that we're seeing and a lot of our capacity that we're seeing is still focused on the three and the four-inch with a longer-term plan to transition to six-inch within the next probably year or so.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer, AXT

Yeah, the signal is obviously very strong. A lot of customers are telling us, can we get more four-inch? Okay, six-inch is actually a little bit more out But people are warning us, it's coming, it's coming. But 4-inch is real. And I would say the ratio for 3-inch and 6-inch right now is maybe 4 to 1 in favor of 3-inch. And I think going out in about six months to a year, it could be, I mean, as far as wafer number is concerned, it becomes probably 2 to 1. in favor of 3-inch. 3-inch is still the majority, the larger the numbers. But because 4-inch is actually at a lower number right now, so it's going to grow very rapidly in the coming quarters.

Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham Securities

Thanks. Great, Carlo. I appreciate that. Thank you. Thank you, Charles.

Tracy | Conference Coordinator

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon with Craig Hallam. Your line is open.

Please go ahead. Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallum

Well, hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a couple questions here. I'd love to understand how do we think about the CAPEX requirements here for these capacity builds? You talked about a brownfield one this year that's doubling, and then a greenfield one I think that's going to happen in 28 or maybe in 27, maybe going into 28 here that's more greenfield. What if you give us some numbers or at least some statistics to think about what that's going to require and over what period of time?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Okay. Well, for this year, it's mostly adding, you know, high-tech growth equipment for crystal growth. So, furnaces, some back-end stuff for polishers, etc. But as Tim and Morris have said, we have an existing footprint. That's one reason we think we have an advantage. Our current Indian phosphide crystal growth site has room for more furnaces. And as Tim explained, we're repurposing our gallium arsenide crystal growth that was in Beijing for even more. So this year, compared to the future years, it's probably going to be $35 million in capex. Maybe 30, maybe 40, somewhere in that range. And to be honest, we'll spend as much as we can as fast as we can because we're uniquely positioned to be able to add capacity quickly. So next year, let's see. It depends on which things we're talking about. Tim, you've got it split up in your paperwork there, but...

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

Yeah, I think as we go into next year and we look at building out this facility next door to us, obviously buying a new facility, doubling our capacity again there, and also building some capacity through our supply chains as well, I think we're looking somewhere in the region of about $100 million or so. And then beyond that, if we were to build a greenfield site somewhere else, I think we're looking at somewhere in the region of 220 to 250 million bucks, depending on obviously what capacity we put in that greenfield site. But again, I think if we're putting a meaningful capacity there, you're looking at 200 plus million dollars.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallum

Okay, fair enough. Thanks for that detail here. I want to ask on uranium phosphide business here by geography. You made a couple of interesting comments here. Last call you said China was going to grow about 60% this first quarter, and then you said it actually was up 100%. If I caught you correctly, it's going to double again here in the second quarter. What kind of percentage of uranium phosphide business in the second quarter is China going to be in?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development, AXT

That's a great question. So I think we're seeing a lot of growth in China, and it's not just because we're seeing data center growth in China, but we're seeing China enter the global supply chain market for optical transceivers and potentially co-packaged optics as we go forward. So again, remember, this is fully globalized, and a lot of those transceiver companies that manufacture their transceivers within China are driving to a Chinese supply chain of laser diodes and photo detectors. So in Q2, we estimate that the Chinese demand is probably about 30% of the overall Indian phosphide global market demand that we're seeing. And we're seeing that increasing through certainly through Q3 and Q4 as well. So, you know, as we get into Q4, it could even be as high as something pushing up to 40% share of the total Indian phosphide market.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallum

Okay. That is helpful, Tim. And that's one last question to jump out of line here, and that's on the topic of gross margins. Gary, you've talked about in the past here with, you know, hoping to get to 35% with kind of an upside goal of looking at 40%. But when you're talking about the pretty strong mix shift towards the new phosphide here and even about price increases here, I would imagine you'd maybe help us think about whether that could go higher at some point in time. I'm not asking for any time soon, but are you looking for kind of a ceiling of gross margins that get us above that 40% level?

Thank you. Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

Well, Internally, as a management team, we're definitely going to be targeting something that begins with a four, but it's far out. We don't know yet. And so I'd still stick with my sense that somewhere in the 35% range is very, very reasonable. But that's for the outside world. It's a safe arrival, landing point. But that doesn't mean that we're satisfied with it and we think we can you know, do better, but we need to get it farther down the road and prove that first.

Okay. Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallum

That's all I want to hear. That's all from me, Gary.

Thank you. Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer, AXT

You're welcome, Richard.

Good to hear from you. Tracy | Conference Coordinator

There are no further questions at this time. I will now turn the call back to Leslie Green, Investor Relations at AXT, for closing remarks.

Leslie Green | Investor Relations, AXT

Thank you, Tracy. And thank you all for participating in our conference call. We will be participating in the B. Reilly Securities 2026 Annual Investor Conference and the Craig Hallam Institutional Conference in May, as well as the Northland Virtual Conference in June. We hope to see many of you there. And as always, feel free to contact us if you'd like to set up a call. We look forward to speaking with you all in the near future.

Thanks. Tracy | Conference Coordinator

This concludes today's call. Thank you for attending. You may now disconnect. jsPDF 3.0.3 D:20260606085959-00'00'

Research summary and source transcript

readyJun 10, 2026

AXT reported Q4 2025 revenue of $23.0 million, down sequentially and year-over-year, with non-GAAP gross margin improving to 21.5% from 18.0% in Q4 2024. Management emphasized strong demand for indium phosphide substrates driven by AI and data center build-out, particularly in China, and highlighted a backlog exceeding $60 million for indium phosphide wafers. The company is expanding capacity, aiming to double indium phosphide capacity by end of 2026, supported by a recent equity raise that increased cash to $128.4 million. However, growth remains gated by unpredictable China export permit timing, which management identifies as the single most significant constraint.

Management knows today that the backlog for indium phosphide wafers has exceeded $60 million and that customers are providing longer-term visibility into demand, with forecasts extending beyond 2030 and weekly increases in demand projections. They also know that capacity expansion is underway, with a 25% increase already implemented and a plan to double capacity by end of 2026, supported by recent capital raise proceeds. The market likely will not know for 6-24 months whether these backlog commitments will convert to revenue, as conversion is entirely dependent on the timing and approval of China export permits—a process management describes as opaque, variable, and outside their control, with no predictability in issuance timing despite ongoing engagement with MOFCOM.

The business is driven by: (1) demand for indium phosphide substrates in AI and data center optical transceiver applications, (2) the ability to obtain China export permits for shipments, and (3) manufacturing capacity and yield efficiency to fulfill orders once permitted.

  • Export permit timing and unpredictability as the primary gating factor for growth
  • Backlog growth and customer demand visibility, particularly for indium phosphide
  • Capacity expansion plans, including doubling indium phosphide capacity by end of 2026
  • Gross margin improvement and operating expense discipline
  • Expansion of customer base, including tier one laser and optical transceiver manufacturers
  • Supply chain integration via subsidiaries like JingMei and BoYu for critical materials
  • Backlog for indium phosphide wafers reaching a new high of over $60 million
  • Customer demand forecasts extending beyond 2030 with weekly increases
  • Rapid growth in China data center and AI infrastructure, with China-related revenue expected to grow over 60% in Q1 vs Q4
  • Expansion into six-inch indium phosphide and new customer qualifications in optical space
  • Strong interest from CEOs and general managers (not just purchasing managers) in capacity and long-term supply

Management exhibits a tone of cautious optimism mixed with frustration. They are direct and credible in acknowledging the unpredictability of export permits, repeatedly emphasizing that timing is outside their control and not aligned with quarterly reporting. Their excitement about demand, backlog, and customer engagement is specific and detailed, citing weekly forecast increases, CEO-level conversations, and long-term visibility beyond 2030. They avoid overpromising on financials, offering wide guidance ranges and stressing permit dependency. Their discussion of capacity expansion includes realistic cost estimates and distinctions between brownfield and greenfield phases, enhancing credibility. There is no evidence of evasiveness or inflated claims; instead, they balance enthusiasm with transparency about constraints.

  • No clear dodged analyst question was detected by the local fallback; manual review should still check whether Q&A answers quantified conversion, margins, and guidance.
  • There may be a benchmark or metric-framing issue worth manual review, especially around adjusted metrics, timelines, or changed expectations.

AXT appears to be winning competitively in the indium phosphide substrate market for AI and data center applications. Management cites being 'one of two' suppliers capable of meeting the demand, with strong customer engagement, design-in wins, qualification progress, and a broadening base of tier one optical transceiver and laser manufacturers. The company highlights its vertically integrated supply chain control (via JingMei, BoYu) as a differentiator, and notes that customers are seeking domestic Chinese suppliers like Tongmei for supply chain security. The backlog growth and customer forecasts beyond 2030 suggest increasing market share and entrenched positioning, though the ability to capitalize is constrained by external permit factors rather than competitive weakness.

  • Q4 2025 revenue: $23.0 million (vs $28.0M Q3 2025, $25.1M Q4 2024)
  • Indium phosphide revenue: $8.0 million in Q4 2025, primarily from data center applications
  • Non-GAAP gross margin: 21.5% in Q4 2025 (vs 22.6% Q3 2025, 18.0% Q4 2024)
  • Backlog for indium phosphide wafers: over $60 million, a new high
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and investments: $128.4 million as of December 31, 2025 (up $97.2M sequentially)
  • Capacity increase: approximately 25% more capacity added since Q4 2025, on track to double by end of 2026
  • Receipt of additional China export permits enabling conversion of backlog to revenue
  • Successful completion of Tongmei subsidiary IPO on Shanghai Star Market
  • Capacity expansion milestones, particularly doubling indium phosphide capacity by end of 2026
  • Gross margin expansion toward internal targets of 35%+ as volume increases
  • Conversion of long-term supply agreements and purchase orders into shipped revenue post-permit approval
  • Revenue remains gated by unpredictable China export permit approvals, with no control over timing
  • Backlog conversion risk if permits are delayed or denied, despite customer commitments
  • Inventory buildup (net inventory up $4M to $81.7M) if demand does not materialize as expected
  • Dependence on a concentrated customer base, with top five customers generating 22.6% of revenue
  • Capital execution risk in scaling capacity, particularly if moving to greenfield expansion beyond 2026
  • Margin pressure if product mix shifts to lower-margin six-inch wafers during early production

Data center build-out, particularly for AI infrastructure, is a direct and significant driver of demand for AXT's indium phosphide substrates. Management explicitly states that indium phosphide revenue in Q4 was 'primarily from data center applications' and that the 'massive AI infrastructure build-out and planned capex spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the United States is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers.' In China, data center build-out is described as 'early in its ramp' but growing rapidly, with China-related data center revenue expected to grow by more than 60% in Q1 over Q4. The company sees itself as a 'fundamental supplier to the multi-year optical build out in the AI infrastructure market,' indicating a strong, direct linkage between AI/data center capex and AXT's substrate demand, though realization remains constrained by export permits.

  • What specific milestones or metrics will management use to track progress toward converting the $60M+ backlog into revenue, aside from permit receipt?
  • How does management assess the risk of inventory obsolescence if permit delays extend beyond expected timelines, given the $4M sequential increase in net inventory?
  • What are the expected gross margin profiles for six-inch indium phosphide wafers during early production, and how will they impact overall margin expansion?
  • Beyond the stated $30M for doubling capacity, what is the anticipated timing and scale of additional capital needs for greenfield expansion in 2027, and what funding sources are expected?
  • How is management diversifying customer concentration risk, given that the top five customers accounted for 22.6% of Q4 revenue, and what is the trend in customer count and revenue dispersion?
  • What leading indicators does management monitor to assess whether export permit processing times are improving or deteriorating, and how frequently do they engage with MOFCOM on process transparency?

FY2025 Q4 earnings call transcript

40,843 chars

NASDAQ:AXTI Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Generated on 6/6/2026 Audra | Conference Coordinator: Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to AXT's fourth quarter 2025 financial conference call. Leading the call today is Dr. Morris Young, Chief Executive Officer, and Gary Fisher, Chief Financial Officer. In addition, Tim Bettles, VP of Business Development, will be participating in the Q&A portions of the call. My name is Audra, and I will be your coordinator today. I would now like to turn the call over to Leslie Green, Investor Relations for AXT.

Please go ahead. Leslie Green | Investor Relations, AXT

Thank you, Audra, and good afternoon, everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, timing of receipt of export permits, our plan to list our subsidiary Tongmei in China, our ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity. We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events, are based on management's current expectations, and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results or events to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China. In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be discussed in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website through February 19, 2027. Also, I want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025. This information is available on the investor relations portion of our website. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fisher for a review of our fourth quarter results. Gary?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the fourth quarter of 2025 was $23.0 million, compared with $28.0 million in the third quarter of 2025. and 25.1 million in the fourth quarter of 2024. To break down our Q4-25 revenue for you by product category, indium phosphide was 8.0 million, primarily from data center applications. Gallium arsenide was 7.0 million. Germanium substrates were 231,000. Finally, revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q4 was 7.6 million. In the fourth quarter of 2025, revenue from Asia Pacific was 81.5%, Europe was 17.5%, and North America was 1%. The top five customers generated approximately 22.6% of total revenue, and no customers were over the 10% level. Non-GAAP gross margin in the fourth quarter was 21.5%. For comparison, we reported 22.6% gross margin in Q3 of 2025, and 18.0 gross margin in Q4 of last year. For those who prefer to track results on a gap basis, gross margin in the fourth quarter was 20, 20.9% compared with 22.3% in Q3 of 2025 and 17.6% in Q4 of 2024. We continue to be highly focused on driving continued improvement, including further recovery in Q1. Moving to operating expenses, Our total non-GAAP operating expense in Q4 was $7.8 million, compared with $6.5 million in Q3 of 2025. As a reminder, Q3 included some favorable adjustments in R&D that brought our OpEx down to a lower-than-normal level. Non-GAAP OpEx in Q4 of 2024 was $9.8 million. On a GAAP basis, total operating expense in Q4 of 2025 was $8.8 million, compared with $7.3 million in Q3. and 10.6 million in Q4 of 2024. Our non-GAAP operating loss in the fourth quarter of 2025 was 2.6 million compared with the non-GAAP operating loss in Q3 of 2025 of 384,000 and the non-GAAP operating loss of 5.4 million in Q4 of 2024. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the fourth quarter of 2025 was a loss of 3.8 million compared with an operating loss of 1.1 million in Q3 of 2025 and an operating loss of 6.2 million in Q4 of 2024. Non-operating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the fourth quarter of 2025 was a net gain of 285,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today. For Q4 of 2025, we had a non-GAAP net loss of 2.6 million or $0.06 per share compared with the non-GAAP net loss of $1.2 million or $0.02 per share in the third quarter of 2025. Non-GAAP net loss in Q4 of 2024 was $4.2 million or $0.10 per share. On a GAAP basis, net loss in Q4 was $3.6 million or $0.08 per share. By comparison, net loss was $1.9 million or $0.04 per share in the third quarter of 2025. GAAP net loss in Q4 of 2024 was $5.1 million or $0.12 per share. Weighted basic shares outstanding for the quarter was 44.7 million. Cash, cash equivalents and investments increased by 97.2 million to 128.4 million as of December 31st. This is primarily the result of our public offering of common stock, which closed on December 30th and generated approximately 93.9 million. By comparison, at September 30th, cash was 31.2 million, Accounts receivable decreased in the quarter by 2.6 million. Depreciation and amortization in the fourth quarter was 2.3 million. Total stock comp was 1.3 million. Net inventory was up by approximately 4 million in the fourth quarter to 81.7 million. This continues to be a focus for us, and we expect to bring it down in coming quarters. This concludes our discussion or comments about the quarterly financials. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary Tongmei in China on the star market in Shanghai, we remain very interested in completing the IPO, particularly in light of the rapidly evolving AI infrastructure build-out in China, which is fueling increased China-based demand for Indian phosphide substrates. We've continued to keep our IPO application current, and Tongmei remains, quote, in process. as part of much of a more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago. Though the current geopolitical environment is dynamic, Tang Mei is considered a Chinese company and continues to be regarded in China as a good IPO candidate. We will keep you informed of any updates. With that, I'll now turn the call over to Dr. Morris Young for a review of our business and markets.

Morris. Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Gary.

We were disappointed Audra | Conference Coordinator

And pardon the interruption, this is the operator. We have lost our speakers. Give me one moment to reconnect.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Hello? Yes, we can hear you now.

Audra | Conference Coordinator

Am I back on?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yes, you are. Thank you. Okay, let me start from the beginning again, just in case I missed part of it. We were disappointed that we didn't receive as many export permits in Q4 as we had hoped. based on the average processing time we had seen up to that point in October. The good news is now that we have received permits in Q1, and we are in a stronger position today than we were at the same time in the prior quarter. Gary will take you through our full quarter guidance in a few minutes, but we do expect to achieve sequential growth in revenue in Q1, driven primarily by growth in Indian Phosphine for data center build out for AI. We're also very pleased to note that we are seeing a welcome expansion of our customer base for Indian Phosphine. We're beginning to support leading customers in the optical space that we have limited exposure to prior to this time. This includes tier one laser manufacturers and optical transceiver module makers, both in China and around the world. We're excited to be able to demonstrate the technological advantage of our low EPD wafers as the market moves to optical devices with higher speed and greater sophistication for both scale up and scale out applications. In total, Our backlog for indium phosphide wafers have reached a new high of over $60 million. As we mentioned last quarter, customers are planning for longer lead time by placing longer term orders and giving us more visibility into their expected demand. As many of you know, the supply chain for optical transceiver is quite complex. and highly globalized. We believe this geographical interdependence is providing both opportunity and incentives for the ecosystem to work together in new ways to solve global supply chain shortages. Beyond pluggable receivers, we're seeing a very large developing market for co-packaged optics for both scale-up and scale-out applications. We're actively engaging in discussions with our customers about their technical and timing requirements and believe this could represent yet another inflection point in our business developing in late 2027 and beyond. From a geographic demand perspective, The massive AI infrastructure build-out and planned capex spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the United States is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers. We believe that today our materials are being used in multiple U.S. hyperscale, and we expect that end customers use will continue to broaden. In China, the data center build out is early in its ramp, but we are seeing rapid growth as China moves to accelerate its data center expansion and AI capabilities. Our revenue related to the data center market in China are expected to grow by more than 60% in Q1 over Q4. Highlighting both increased investment in these tier one data centers as well as the strong desire for Chinese domestic suppliers to secure local source at every level of the AI infrastructure supply chain. Given the strong demand environment, it is important to know that AXC is well positioned to handle increased demand for Indian phosphide wafers. Since we have last reported to you in October, We have already added approximately 25% more capacity, and we are on track with our current plan to double our capacity from Q4 2025 level by the end of this year. Beyond our current plan for capacity expansion, we're working closely with our customer base to understand their long-term requirement and to align our plans globally. Our recent capital raise will be a fundamental to our future expansion as we enter our next significant phase of growth. A major focus of this expansion will be an increased investment in our six-inch indium phosphide product. And we are excited to work with our customers to meet the vigorous requirements of next-generation EML and silicon photonics-based devices. Now turning to gallium arsenide, we continue to see demand for semi-insulating wafers for wireless RF devices and believe that we have strong opportunity for market share expansion, gated primarily by our ability to obtain export permits. In Q4, We saw an uptick in semiconducting wafers for both industrial laser applications and data center laser applications. VIXO lasers for data center applications typically do not require a lot of gallium oxide material. The devices are small, so they don't move the needle much as a growth driver for us. We're seeing an increased demand for VIXO for autonomous vehicles in China, Chinese automobile market, which is currently expanding rapidly. High growth expansions, in addition to our watching, we are watching with interest an emerging application in robotics for VIXOs that increase the precision and dexterity of a modern robotic hand. Counter the VIXO used in data center applications, machine vision VIXOs tend to be very large and use more gallium oxide substrates. They also require high quality material, which we are very well positioned to supply. Again, demand is more today, primarily China-based, and covers a diverse set of customers But the breadth of use case and the development is very exciting. Finally, our raw material business was up in Q4 with growth from our subsidiary BoYu, which manufactures PBN crucibles used in manufacturing of indium phosphide crucibles. In addition, we're pleased to report that our subsidiary JingMei has begun to refine high-quality indium, which gave us now direct control of a guaranteed supply of yet another critical material for our indium phosphide substrates. Globally, there continues to be a greater awareness of the importance of earth's materials, and we are ahead of the curve in developing our unique integrated supply chain. In closing, This is a very dynamic, exciting time for our company. As we enter into 2026, we're a fundamental supplier to the multi-year optical build out in the AI infrastructure market. We have a broadening customer base of tier one companies and a strong balance sheet to support our continued business expansion. And with growing backlog, The receipt of Indium Phosphide and gallium oxide export license remains the single most significant gating factor for our growth. As such, we are highly focused on ensuring that we are proactive, organized, and disciplined about managing the process on behalf of our customers. We also know that we must be laser focused on running our business with the greatest efficiency. This includes our continued effort to drive gross margin improvement, op-ex disciplines, and inventory reduction. With strong ongoing market trends fueling the data center upgrade cycle, we believe that we have tremendous opportunity in 2026 to drive meaningful growth in our business and return to profitability. I would like to personally thank our employees for their dedication and tireless effort during this singular moment in AXD history. And I would also like to express my sincere gratitude to our customers, partners, and shareholders for their ongoing support and believe that in the future, we are building together. We look forward to reporting to you on our progress. With that, I will turn the call back to Gary for our fiscal quarter guidance.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Morris. To reiterate a couple of key points from Morris' commentary, we are seeing a strong increase in our Indian phosphide wafer demand related to AI and the ongoing data center upgrade cycle. Given the geopolitical complexity surrounding this market trend, our customer base is diversifying and expanding, and customers are placing longer-term orders and providing greater visibility into their needs. With all of these positive market and AXT-specific growth drivers, the most significant single factor to our growth in Q1 and beyond is the success and timing of getting export permits. Therefore, guiding for the future is somewhat tricky for us right now as we cannot predict future timing of permits or our success in obtaining them for any customer or individual order. But drawing on what we know and what we've experienced thus far in the export permitting process, we can offer the following insight to our expectations for Q1. As of today, we have approximately $26 million in revenue that can be realized in Q1 across our substrate product lines and raw materials for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q1. We could see significant upside to this number in Q1 should we receive more permits for additional orders between now and the end of the quarter. But we want to stress that as we experience in Q4, the timing for permit issuance is not predictable nor in our control and doesn't necessarily align with our quarterly reporting. As Morris mentioned, we continue to focus strongly on gross margin. Further improvement depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to absorption of fixed costs, revenue mixed by product, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency. With regards to OPEX, we expect that it will remain at approximately $9.0 million in Q1. With these factors in mind, we believe our non-GAAP net loss will be in the range of $0.02 to $0.04. and gap net loss will be in the range of four to six cents. This represents substantial year-over-year progress towards our return to profitability. We estimate share count in Q1 will be approximately 53.2 million shares. Okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We'd be glad to answer your questions now. Audra, operator?

Audra | Conference Coordinator

Thank you. We will now begin the question and answer session. If you have dialed in and would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad to raise your hand and join the queue. If you would like to star your question, simply press star one again. We'll go first to Richard Shannon at Craig Hallam.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallam

Well, great. Thanks, Morris and Gary, for taking my questions here. Gary, I'm going to have to do a quick request to give me the revenue number you gave for the quarter. My line got garbled here. I heard about 26 that you believe you can get, highly likely get, Was there a number to the upside there? Apologies for needing to ask this.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

We normally give you guys a range, but we discussed before the call today that we're very, very confident at the 26 number. We did say just a moment ago that we believe we could go higher if we get more permits, but it could even be more than just a normal range, which we usually have a $2 or $3 million range for you guys.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Well, let me try to add on to this point. That is, our manufacturing are doing the manufacturing as if we can get a permit. So there's a lot of these so-called semi-finished goods or finished goods staging in our clean room ready to be shipped if we can get an actual permit.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we... We are building to forecast and to the backlog whether or not – we're not building to permits. We're not waiting until we get a permit and then say, okay, let's get going. And so it's building, and, you know, we're enthusiastic, we're excited, and, of course, yeah, we're a little bit frustrated because it would be pretty big numbers if we can get some more of these permits. And we think that we will. We can comment more in this call. We're hanging in there. We're not discouraged in giving up.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallam

Okay. Appreciate understanding your approach to the guidance. It certainly makes a lot of sense in this environment. Let me ask about the licensing process here. Last quarter you said it was about a 60-business day or three-month process here, and obviously that didn't turn out as we saw from your preannouncement, which is unfortunate, but we all know how governments can work from time to time here. Do you have any new insights as to how they're working here? And I guess are there – Are there any permits that are being rejected that you don't think should be? Just more insights here on this licensing process.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, I can answer that one. So this process is not transparent at all. And we're seeing quite a lot of variability. We started off in the end of Q3 by saying it was looking like we're seeing a fairly consistent 60 business day process cycle. We're now seeing a lot more variability as we go through that. And as I say, there's just no transparency to that. It's reasonable to assume that there's geopolitics playing into this as well. It's really hard to determine what and why. And it's difficult, therefore, to figure out which permits are coming in on time, which are taking longer. I'll answer the second question as well, which you asked whether there had been any permits that had been denied and why. We have actually received a couple of denials with the instruction that we can resubmit that application with more information. So this is the first time we've actually received denials on permits, and we're not utterly sure why. Again, no transparency to this. We don't see any particular reason why any of these permits should not be approved. And it's a process that we're just working through. So these permits that have been denied, we've already resubmitted with MOFCOM and we're hopeful that we continue to talk to MOFCOM and they will get reviewed quickly and could potentially turn around fairly quickly. Could even make an impact on Q1 numbers if we can get a quick turnaround on them.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

And what does MOFCOM stand for?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Oh, that's the Ministry of Commerce in China.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So let me add what Optimix's viewpoint, the comment about Tim just gave you. That is, although there is a denial of an application, but they come with a specific instruction how to strengthen the application, which we think is a good indication. In other words, If they really want to deny it, they can just let it sit there. I mean, the fact that they want more information about... Actually, I think it's a sizable permit application we have, and that means, hey, you know, they are taking a very serious look at it, and hopefully that, you know, will turn to be a permit.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallam

Yeah. Okay. That is helpful. Thanks for that insight. Second question here is... kind of the backlog here and also following up on Morris, your comments about customers looking farther out. So we went from a backlog of 49 to above 60 here. And you also commented that people or customers are boarding farther out. Could you suggest how far out they're going right now? And also how far out are you hearing forecasts from these customers as well?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, let me see how to answer that. Actually, Let me first answer my part of the question, and I will turn it over to Tim. Well, the reason why is that Tim really works with customers, hearing what their demand is. Actually, one of the interesting comments we have was that we have important meetings with our customers this week, and they're telling us, Tim, at least in two locations, people are saying, gee, you know, our demand forecast increases every week. So that's the kind of level I think, I mean, we know it is tight and we know it's going up, but I think, you know, people are upsizing their demand and they're telling us, you know, what they want to do, whether they're going to go to 4-inch, how much they want to switch from 4-inch three to four and four to six. Okay. And as far as how much inventory they're building, I think that depends upon customers. Some of the customers, we suspect that they're buying into the inventory, but they also tell us, you know, I'm going to take it all if we can cover. Whereas others, I think they are telling us the real demand in the quarter because I think you know, as of now, we cannot deliver enough of their demand. So they are giving us longer lead time to give us more incentive to, you know, build up the expansion plan and build the capacity for them. And also, I think the other thing is, Tim, you want to comment on long-term commitment that you're talking to customer about?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, I'll comment a little bit on that, and I'll also comment a little bit more on backlog and what we're seeing from this. So a lot of this backlog, remember, is scaled up based on the permit dynamics. So the permit dynamics, once we receive a permit to export material, we have a six-month window to export. So a lot of backlog is built that the moment that permit comes in, we have a six-month window maximum to deliver. And in many cases, that window, the window of which the customers are looking to receive material, is a lot shorter than six months. So really and truthfully, this is all being gated by permits, as we mentioned during the discussion. In terms of what we're seeing in build out for inventory, I think at this moment in time, people would like to keep more inventory. But as Morris mentioned, just about everybody we're talking to is telling us that the demand is growing literally on a weekly basis. So we just see the numbers expanding and expanding over and over. Turning to forecasts and what kind of visibility we have, we are definitely talking about long-term supply agreements with a number of customers right now. And we're planning our business according to those long-term supply agreements. We're seeing forecasts out beyond 2030 for many of these customers. But of course, as I've just said, those numbers are increasing on a week-by-week basis. So it's difficult to keep track of things, but people are talking about minimum demand requirements moving forward for at least the next two to three years, giving us forecasts out beyond 2030. So all in all, I think this backlog is real, it's achievable, and it's kind of being...

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallam

limited by our permits at the moment okay makes sense last one more question jump out of line here guys um this is on capacity additions um just a few kind of uh multi-part question here i think i heard you say you're going to double your capacity uh from the end of 25 to the end of 26. you could verify that and if so can you help us understand what level of cap access again requiring And then looking beyond that, and Tim, you just mentioned forecasts going out beyond 2030, which is interesting to hear, how much more capacity beyond that could you need? Let our minds wander about what kind of scale of opportunity you're thinking about here.

Thank you. Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think we just said we have increased our capacity by 25%. now, and we do expect to double our capacity by the end of this year. And how much budget would we need? It could be about $30 million. And that is sort of on the low end, in a way, because the first phase of the expansion, which is doubling our capacity, mainly use Brownfield. In other words, in our existing tomei facility, we already have a clean room available. We have the building there already and power supply and clean water. So I think that budget is lower. Looking beyond 2026, we are looking at possibly doubling it again in 2027 and that budget is lying somewhere around $100 to $150 million, depends about how we want to build it, because then we're talking about a greenfield. We need building, we need clean, we need power, et cetera.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig Hallam

OK, great. Thank you, guys. Thanks, Richard.

Audra | Conference Coordinator

We'll move next to Tim Savojo at Northland Securities.

Tim Savojo | Analyst, Northland Securities

Hey, good afternoon. Let's continue with that capacity discussion, but maybe try to put some numbers around it. You know, if I look at where you've peaked historically, and I think we're talking exclusively about indium phosphide here, that's, you know, getting up toward $20 million a quarter in substrate revenue. And I imagine your capacity is now slightly above that given the increase you talked about in Q4. I guess question one, is that reasonable? And should we expect you to exit calendar 26 with revenue capacity roughly double those levels? And would you anticipate having the demand to fulfill that at that time where you're building maybe a little bit ahead?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Let me first answer the question. I think we calculated, I think it's approximately $35 million a quarter by the end of the year rent rate. It could be a little bit more, given that the price environment is dynamic as the costs of Indian are going up. And can we use up all this capacity? I think looking at the backlog, we can certainly do, but the problem is the gating factor is the permits.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

I'll add something in here as well. Irrespective of permits, we mentioned we are seeing growth in this business in China as well. And look at it quarter to quarter. Q4 was probably double revenue in China than Q1 in 2025. And we would expect we're looking at potentially doubling again through 2026. So we're definitely seeing growth there in China that warrants expansion as well as growth outside of China where we would need permits for.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Tim, I agree with you, but then I don't want to minimize the importance of outside of China. I think the AI growth, the budget we're seeing, is really fueling the demand for Indian phosphorus substrate.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, Tim, this is Gary. And I'm supposed to be conservative, and I am. But I'm not sure you guys are getting the point, is that every customer is worried about getting enough for their needs. there's a general concern where the meetings we've had this week, we're not meeting with the purchasing manager. We're meeting with CEOs and general managers. They all want to talk to Morris about capacity and about future growth. So there's a phenomenon going on here that all of us, it's unusual for no matter what we do for our jobs, including the analysts, this is a very unique and unusual situation. I mean, I'm, I've been around the block a few times, and Morris has, and this is very, very unusual. And it's actually intense. We're excited, but we're scrambling. We're scrambling. And I don't see any into it near term. People are telling us that their demand is going to be going up three, four, five X over the next four or five years. And, you know, there's not, how many suppliers are there? You know the answer to that. Two. And we're one of them, so.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think, let me add to that. I think, you know, the investor usually asks the CEO, the toughest question is, what keeps you up at night? I think what's keeping you up at night is calculating how we're going to expand that capacity, how we're going to get that product to our customers. and how to develop the technology that customer wants. I mean, it's very exciting, but it's also very straining. You know, we need to be very much aware of what the customer wants and satisfy their demand.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Fortunately, we have recent experience at adding capacity. What, you know, it was almost about 10 years ago when we learned that we needed to get gallium arsenide moved out of Beijing. So we had 20, 17, 18 kind of time period where we did add capacity from green grass fields. So we have some strengths here, but it's going to tax us even though we are experienced.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I don't want to give the analyst a point to ask the question, but I think we're talking to each other. We're too excited, yeah. But I think it is a very good point. I think we, prior to this, we probably overspent because the IPO preparation, we actually expand from one facility to three facilities. But now I think we're looking at a great demand for Indian phosphide. which I think it's really meeting our challenge. And I think Gary is right. We are very well positioned to meet that demand. I think we are probably the best suited to increase capacity. And also because the variable integration we have in terms of supply chain, and we're in control of a lot of other material, which could be in short supply, you know, if Indian phosphide subsides continue to grow like what we're talking about, and we have plans for that as well.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

A good example is subsidiary Jinmei. Jinmei makes the Indian phosphide poly for Tongmei. So, you know, we have in our supply chain is supporting this growth process. Next question, Tim.

Tim Savojo | Analyst, Northland Securities

Oh, I'm a little bit afraid now, but... You actually highlighted in the release even the increased presence with some big tier one customers. I guess in the commentary you mentioned, you know, maybe some in China, but elsewhere. You know, in terms of what's going on there, are we talking about orders with major new customers, qualification, any specific programs? And I'm not sure these two comments were related or not, but I'll ask if they were with regard to your increased investment in six-inch indium phosphide, if you can maybe cover both of those points.

Appreciate it. Thanks. Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Yeah, I'll take a stab at that one, Tim. So yes, we are gaining more traction with customers, as we've said on previous calls as well, that we've not been so prolific in. So we're gaining design in, we're gaining qualifications on existing products, as well as new products as we move forward. And the customers are looking to expand on their demand for indium phosphide. As Morris mentioned in the call, there's already been a big move from three-inch to four-inch. So we've spent a lot of time and effort on scaling up our four-inch business. And we're also seeing a lot of interest now. And of course, we all know one customer that's really driving six inch demand. So we're really taking six inch very, very seriously. And we're expanding as we expand capacity, both now and our doubling capacity through 26 and beyond. We're looking at adding significant six inch capacity in there during that expansion. And we're just plowing through the numbers right now to see what we need to drive six-inch and how we scale six-inch compared to three and four and more of the traditional wafer sizes.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I think you'll... Sorry, Morris, please. Sure, Tim. I think, you know, One part of it perhaps is the cooperative effort. Usually when your customer don't go to me, they probably talk to the sales guy and give us orders. But I think now the dynamics is such that we sort of need to interact more to make sure that we're putting the right amount of attention to both in terms of development and capacity expansion to where they need it. Okay. And then, you know, virtually also to convince us this is the right investment we should have. Is that right?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

That's correct. We're also getting a lot more customer buy-in with commitments, NRE, purchase orders to drive that business forward as well.

Okay. Thank you. Audra | Conference Coordinator

We'll move next to Matt Bryson at Wedbush Securities.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Thanks for taking the question. Can you talk a little bit about what might have been unfettered demands or shipments in Q4 or what you might be guiding to in Q1 if you weren't restricted by permits?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

If we're not restricted by permits, then the basic question is our ability to manufacture high volume, because there's no issue about demand or backlog. So the variable that you're really focusing on is manufacturing capability.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

yeah i i i don't know whether the customer are telling us more demand than we can deliver but i think we definitely have more orders than we can actually manufacture now as we as we add the capacity we're counting on who we can supply to but of course there's the other beating factor which is the permits yeah so i i mean hypothetically assuming you could be manufacturing around 20 million dollars worth of new thoughts on Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities: You could ship it all if you could get permanent.

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Yes, correct. And we expect to increase it to about $35 million a quarter by the end of the year. And that way of making sure every point along the supply chain receives equal attention in terms of poly, in terms of crucibles, furnaces, et cetera, et cetera.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Understood. And then, so you're completely confident that of that 35 million in capacity, if you can bring it on and you can get permits that come to end of this year, you could possibly be shipping 30 million, 35 million in orders. I guess, are there any customer commitments or LTAs or anything else that kind of solidifies that demand?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

What's that term?

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

We've got a lot of purchase orders in there right now, and we're going through long-term agreements. Long-term agreements, I think, in terms of locking up capacity are easy, and we're talking to customers to lock that capacity up. The gating factor, and we've reiterated this a lot today and previously, Gating factor with long-term agreements is how much can we actually ship out of the country? What can we get permits for? So we're trying to address that through LTAs. But for sure, we can definitely cover this kind of revenue volume with purchase orders and LTAs.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Thanks, Ken. And then, Gary, I think the last one I have is for you. If you get to those numbers in terms of shipments for indium phosphide, so 30 million plus. Can you give us some of the parameters we should be thinking about in terms of gross margins? What are the puts and takes? And, you know, hypothetically, would you be able to get back to the kind of COVID era highs that you were reporting back in 2021, 2022?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I mean, we always like Indian phosphide. And, you know, if you have to pick of our three substrate products that you want to see go through the ceiling in terms of volume and demand, it's the right one for us. I think getting somewhere at, you know, $40 million a quarter in agri, not just Indian phosphide, but we should be getting...

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

Hopefully somewhere close to 35% Gross margin so I will add other point, you know, I always describe AFC It's a fairly unique company because we I Describe our substrate business as the locomotive engine in the front Well, we have a lot of cars in the back following us such as Indian such as phosphorus, quartz, PBN crucibles, furnaces we make. So if our business is good, we're pulling these guys along. And that should help us. So what you're seeing here, I'm more optimistic. And Gary said, I think that 35% is the normal substrate business. If we can pull those guys along, that should help us even further.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Our internal goal is higher, Matt. But so that we don't overstate expectations from, you know, for your community, you know, we want to be a little bit cautious. So we're very optimistic.

So it's pretty exciting. Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Just one quick follow-up. The shift to 4-inch and 6-inch, does that change the parameters at all on a gross market perspective?

Dr. Morris Young | Chief Executive Officer

I think normally, the larger the size we go, the better the margin we will get. On the other hand, I'll be more cautious about six inches. We are still a little bit in development stage. So I think initially, we're looking at lower margin, but we're looking for ways to compensate that.

Tim Bettles | VP of Business Development

Right, Tim? Right. And product mix is still very much geared towards three-inch and four-inch at the moment. And, you know, as Morris says, we're running six-inch up. It is still a bit of a development project at the moment. It will be growing through this year. But, again, remember, as we do that, three-inch and four-inch are still a big percentage of our business.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you. Thanks, Matt.

Audra | Conference Coordinator

And that concludes our Q&A session. I will now turn the conference back over to Leslie Green for closing remarks.

Leslie Green | Investor Relations, AXT

Thank you, Audra, and thank you all for participating in our conference call. We will be participating virtually in the Loop Capital Conference in March and hope to see many of you there. As always, feel free to contact us if you would like to set up a call, and we look forward to speaking with you soon.

Thanks. Audra | Conference Coordinator

And this concludes today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect. jsPDF 3.0.3 D:20260606090000-00'00'

Research summary and source transcript

readyJun 10, 2026

AXT reported Q3 2025 revenue of $28.0 million, up 56% sequentially and 18% year-over-year, driven by a surge in indium phosphide demand from data center and AI-related optical transceiver applications. The company has built a record $49 million indium phosphide backlog, supported by improved export permit processing (now averaging 60 business days) and stronger customer engagement with tier-one global customers. However, profitability remains constrained, with non-GAAP gross margin at 22.4% (down from 24.3% in Q3 2024) and continued net losses, as operating leverage and product mix improvements are still insufficient to overcome fixed cost absorption challenges.

Management knows today that the export permit process for indium phosphide, while slower than initially expected (now ~60 business days), has become predictable enough that customers are adjusting ordering behavior by placing longer-term orders with extended lead times to accommodate the permitting timeline. This has enabled the buildup of a $49 million backlog, with permits covering up to 12 shipments over six months, and customers are confident in eventual approval based on historical success. The market likely will not fully appreciate for 6-24 months how this shift in customer behavior—moving from just-in-time to permit-driven, visibility-enhanced ordering—will stabilize and scale revenue recognition, reduce quarterly volatility, and support sustained growth beyond the current quarterly guidance range, especially as new tier-one customers qualify AXT’s material and domestic China data center demand ramps over the next 12-18 months.

Indium phosphide wafer demand driven by data center and AI optical transceiver applications, export permit timing and success rate, and manufacturing capacity utilization to absorb fixed costs.

  • Indium phosphide demand growth from data center and AI applications
  • Export permit processing timelines and customer adaptation to longer lead times
  • Record $49 million indium phosphide backlog and its composition
  • Gross margin improvement through product mix and operational efficiency
  • Capacity expansion potential and timeline for scaling indium phosphide output
  • Raw material joint venture profitability and stability
  • Morris Young’s description of customer engagements with GPU/CPU makers and the 'tsunami' analogy from end customers regarding future demand
  • Tim’s emphasis on the ability to increase capacity by 25% in three months and double in nine months using existing infrastructure
  • Gary Fisher’s confidence in recognizing $20 million of Q4 revenue from existing permits or China-shipped goods
  • Morris Young’s pride in securing export permits for significant orders and customer partnership in navigating the process
  • Tim’s observation that incremental indium phosphide growth in Q3 came entirely from outside China

Management presents with a mix of cautious optimism and operational credibility. They are direct about constraints—especially the export permit gating factor—and avoid overpromising, grounding guidance in current permit visibility and known China-shipped revenue. Their excitement about customer demand, backlog growth, and capacity scalability is tempered by repeated emphasis on what they cannot control (permits) and what remains unprofitable (germanium, OpEx timing). There is no evidence of exaggeration; instead, they qualify optimism with concrete constraints, enhancing credibility. The tone is forthright, detail-oriented, and investor-respectful, particularly in explaining complex supply chain dynamics.

  • No clear dodged analyst question was detected by the local fallback; manual review should still check whether Q&A answers quantified conversion, margins, and guidance.
  • There may be a benchmark or metric-framing issue worth manual review, especially around adjusted metrics, timelines, or changed expectations.

AXT appears to be gaining competitive position, particularly in indium phosphide, where management cites strong customer demand, qualification efforts with new tier-one customers, and recognition as a 'very important supplier' by end users including GPU/CPU makers. The ability to supply low-EPD wafers in volume meets next-generation device requirements, and customers are actively seeking AXT due to yield and quality advantages. While a Japanese competitor has added capacity, AXT emphasizes its responsiveness, quality, and customer engagement as differentiating factors. The company is not losing ground and is likely improving its standing in key growth segments.

  • Q3 2025 revenue: $28.0 million (up 56% sequentially, 18% YoY)
  • Indium phosphide revenue: $13.1 million in Q3 2025 (up from $3.5 million in Q2 2025)
  • Indium phosphide backlog: >$49 million as of Q3 2025 (largest in company history)
  • Non-GAAP gross margin: 22.4% in Q3 2025 (vs. 8.2% in Q2 2025, 24.3% in Q3 2024)
  • Cash and investments: $31.2 million as of Sept 30, 2025 (down $3.9M from June 30)
  • Q4 2025 revenue guidance: $27–$30 million (subject to permit timing)
  • Continued improvement in export permit approval timing and predictability
  • Onboarding of new tier-one customers for indium phosphide qualification
  • Ramp of domestic China data center demand over next 12-18 months
  • Successful capacity expansion to meet backlog without major CapEx
  • Sustained gross margin expansion via volume-driven fixed cost absorption and line efficiency
  • Export permit delays or denials remain the single most significant gating factor for revenue recognition
  • Gross margin improvement is not yet sufficient to achieve profitability at current revenue levels
  • Dependence on a small number of large customers (top 5 = 45.2% of revenue, two >10%)
  • Germanium substrate business faces poor gross margin and declining demand
  • Working capital pressure from rising accounts receivable (+$11M) impacting cash flow

Data center demand is a direct and primary driver of AXT’s current growth, specifically through indium phosphide substrates used in EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers for AI connectivity. Management explicitly states that the 'massive AI infrastructure built out and planned CapEx spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the United States is the primary driver' for this demand. They also note that their materials are being used in multiple US hyperscalers and expect end-customer use to broaden. In China, data center build-out is early but expected to grow over the next 12–18 months, potentially overtaking PANG as the leading application for indium phosphide. This represents a clear, near-term, revenue-impacting AI/data center tailwind with no speculative or indirect qualifiers.

  • What is the expected timeline for gross margin to reach >30% at current or slightly higher revenue run rates?
  • How much of the $49 million backlog is tied to customers with approved permits vs. pending applications?
  • What is the actual conversion rate of backlog to revenue per quarter under current permit timing assumptions?
  • When will domestic China data center demand meaningfully contribute to indium phosphide revenue?
  • What specific CapEx and timeline are required to increase indium phosphide capacity by 50%, and what is the expected payback period?
  • How sustainable is the current product mix shift toward high-margin indium phosphide, and what risks exist to its durability?

FY2025 Q3 earnings call transcript

43,228 chars

NASDAQ:AXTI Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript Generated on 6/6/2026 Leslie Greene | VP, Investor Relations: everyone. Before we begin, I would like to remind you that during the course of this conference call, including comments made in response to your questions, we will provide projections or make other forward-looking statements regarding, among other things, the future financial performance of the company, market conditions and trends, emerging applications using chips or devices fabricated on our substrates, our product mix, global economic and political conditions, including trade tariffs and import and export restrictions, ability to obtain China export permits, the timing of receipt of export permits, ability to increase orders in succeeding quarters, to control costs and expenses, to improve manufacturing yields and efficiencies, or to utilize our manufacturing capacity. We wish to caution you that such statements deal with future events are based on management's current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events or results to differ materially. In addition to the matters just listed, these uncertainties and risks include but are not limited to the financial performance of our partially owned supply chain companies and increased environmental regulations in China. In addition to the factors just mentioned or that may be mentioned in this call, we refer you to the company's periodic reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. These are available online by link from our website and contain additional information on risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. This conference call will be available on our website at AXT.com through October 30, 2026. I also want to note that shortly following the close of market today, we issued a press release reporting financial results for the third quarter of 2025. This information is available on the investor relations portion of our website at axt.com. I would now like to turn the call over to Gary Fisher for a review of our third quarter 2025 results. Gary?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Leslie, and good afternoon to everyone. Revenue for the third quarter of 2025 was $28.0 million, compared with $18.0 million in the second quarter of 2025 and $23.6 million in the third quarter of 2024. To break down our Q3-25 revenue for you by product category, indium phosphide was $13.1 million, primarily from data center and pond applications. Gallium arsenide was $7.5 million. Germanium substrates were $640K, and revenue from our consolidated raw material joint venture companies in Q3 was $6.7 million. In the third quarter of 2025, revenue from Asia Pacific was 87%, Europe was 12%, and North America was 1%. The top five customers generated approximately 45.2% of total revenue, and two customers were over the 10% level. Non-GAAP gross margin in the third quarter improved substantially to 22.4%, reflecting improved product mix and higher volume to absorb overhead. For comparison, we reported 8.2% gross margin in Q2 of 2025 and a 24.3% gross margin in Q3 of 2024 last year. For those who prefer to track results on a GAAP basis, gross margin in the third quarter was 22.3% compared with 8.0% in Q2 of 2025 and 24.0% in Q3 of last year. We continue to be highly focused on driving continued improvement, including further recovery in Q4. Moving to operating expenses, given the difficult climate, we've been working hard to hold down OpEx. In addition, we had some favorable adjustments in R&D in Q3 that brought our OpEx down to a lower than normal level. These will not carry over into Q4. Therefore, our total non-GAAP operating expense in Q3 was $6.7 million compared with $7.6 million in Q2 and $8.3 in Q3 of 2024. On a GAAP basis, Total OpEx in Q3 was 7.3 compared with 8.2 million in Q2 and 9.1 million in Q3 of 2024. Our non-GAAP operating loss for the third quarter of 2025 improved substantially to $384,000 compared with the non-GAAP operating loss in Q2 of 2025 of 6.1 million and the non-GAAP operating loss of 2.6 million in Q3 of 2024. For reference, our GAAP operating line for the third quarter of 2025 was a loss of $1.1 million compared with an operating loss of $6.7 million in Q2 and an operating loss of $3.4 million last year in Q3. Non-operating other income and expense and other items below the operating line for the third quarter of 2025 was a net loss of $46,000. The details can be seen in the P&L included in our press release today. For Q3 2025, we had a non-GAAP net loss of $1.2 million or $0.03 per share compared to the non-GAAP net loss of $6.4 million or $0.15 per share in the second quarter of 2025. Non-GAAP net loss in Q3 of 2024 was $2.1 million or $0.05 per share. On a GAAP basis, net loss in Q3 was $1.9 million or $0.04 per share by comparison Net loss was 7.0 million, or 16 cents per share, in the second quarter of 2025. Gap net loss in Q3 of 2024 was 2.9 million, or 7 cents per share. The weighted average basic shares outstanding for Q3 2025 was 43.8 million shares. Cash and cash equivalents and investments decreased by 3.9 million to 31.2 million as of September 30th. By comparison, at June 30th, it was 35.1 million. Accounts receivable increased by 11 million, so the delta in cash is explained in working capital. Appreciation and amortization in the third quarter was 2.3 million. Total stock comp was 0.7 million. Net inventory was down by approximately 2.4 million in the third quarter to 77.7 million. This continues to be a focus, and we expect to bring it down further in quarters to come. This concludes the discussion of our quarterly financial results. Turning to our plan to list our subsidiary Tang Mei in China on the star market in Shanghai. We've continued to keep our IPO application current. Tang Mei remains in process as a part of a much more selective and smaller group of prospective listings than a few years ago. Although the current geopolitical environment is dynamic, Tang Mei is considered a Chinese company and continues to be regarded in China as a good IPO candidate. We will keep you informed of any updates. With that, I'll now turn it over to Dr. Morris Young for review of our business and markets.

Morris. Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Gary. This has been a very eventful quarter for AXC, as we are seeing a strong uptick in any phosphide demand from data center applications globally. And as our industry and our customers adapt a new normal, rapidly changing environment, In Q3, our revenue grew 56% sequentially and 18% year over year. Within this, our indium phosphide revenue grew to our highest level since 2022, as we were successful in obtaining export permits for a number of significant indium phosphide orders throughout the quarter. I'm very proud of the diligence our team and grateful for the partnership of our customers in working through the export control permitting process. Our current experience is that our Indian phosphide permits are taking approximately 60 business days or approximately three months to be processed by China's Ministry of Commerce. This is a bit longer than our initial expectations, but customers are adapting to the requirements and are adjusting their ordering patterns to give us more visibility and longer lead times. I should also note that the Golden Week holiday at the beginning of October in China will likely increase the average permit processing time by a week or so in Q4. The tremendous growth in demand for Indian phosphide-based lasers and detectors for high-speed optical connectivity, coupled with our successful obtaining export permits on behalf of our customers, are driving a strong increase in our Indian phosphide order backlog, which, as of today, is more than $49 million and growing. Our established customers are planning for longer lead times, by placing longer term orders and giving us more visibility into the expected demand. We're also seeing active engagement with several new tier one customers to qualify our material into their supply chains for the first time in many years. This includes leading optical transceiver module makers, both in China and around the globe. As many of you know, The supply chain for optical transceiver is quite complex and highly globalized. We believe this geographic interdependence is providing both opportunities and incentives for the ecosystem to work together in new ways to solve global supply chain shortages. For a geographic demand perspective, the massive AI infrastructure built out and the planned CapEx spending by cloud services and AI platform providers in the United States is the primary driver for EML and silicon photonics-based optical transceivers. We believe that today our materials are being used in multiple US hyperscalers, and we expect that end customers use will continue to broaden. In China, The data center build-out is early in its ramp, but there is a strong desire for domestic suppliers at every level of the supply chain, and we believe over the next 12 to 18 months, we will see healthy growth in the China data center market. Data center expansion in China is quickly overtaking PANG as the leading application in China for our Indian phosphide substrates. Given the strong demand environment, it is important to know that AXC is well positioned to handle increased demand. We have ample manufacturing capacity in place today, and we can also significantly increase our output by current level, and we can also add capacity quickly as needed. We also have a demonstrated ability to supply very low EPD wafers in volume that meet the vigorous requirements of next-generation EML and silicon photonics-based devices. Now turning to gallium arsenide. Our revenue grew more than 20% from the prior quarter. The biggest driver was some insulating wafers for wireless RF devices, which remains a focused application for us. Industrial laser applications were about flat from Q2, and we saw an uptick in semiconducting wafers for data center laser applications. However, VIXO lasers don't typically require a lot of gallium oxide material, so they don't move the needle much as a growth driver. But they do require high quality material, which were well positioned to supply. In germanium substrates, Our sales declined by about $1 million in Q3. The remaining substrate market was very poor gross margin potential today. And while our material performed well in the solar cell applications as we supplied, gross margin constraint disincentivizes us to pursue many opportunities. In addition, Certain customers prefer to source substrates outside of China. As such, we do not expect growth in Germanium substrates in Q4. Finally, our raw material business in Q3 was consistent with the prior quarter, and it was solidly profitable within a stable pricing market. We expect the same for Q4 globally, There continues to be a greater awareness of the importance of earth materials, and we are ahead of the curve in developing this unique integrated supply chain. In closing, this is a highly active time for our business. The receipt of any phosphide and gallium arsenide export permits remains the single most significant gating factor for our growth. As such, we're highly focused on ensuring that we are proactive, organized, and disciplined about managing the process on behalf of our customers. We also know that we must be laser-focused on running our business with the greatest efficiency. This includes our continued effort to drive growth margin improvement, outback discipline, and inventory reduction. We saw ongoing market trends fueling the data center upgrade cycles, we believe we have tremendous opportunity in 2026 to drive meaningful growth in our business and a return to profitability. We look forward to reporting to you our growth progress. With that, I will turn the call back to Gary for our fourth quarter guidance. Gary?

Thank you. Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Morris. To reiterate a couple of key points from Morse's commentary, we are seeing a strong increase in our Indian phosphide wafer demand related to AI and the ongoing data center upgrade cycle. Given the geopolitical complexities surrounding this market trend, customer behaviors in our space are changing to allow for longer substrate lead times. Our customers are placing longer-term orders and providing greater visibility into their needs. As such, our Indian Phosphide backlog has grown to $49 million and is the largest we've ever had in our history. Further, we are actively engaging with new customers today that we've not had business with an opportunity for some time. With all of these positive market and AST-specific growth drivers, the most significant gating factor in our growth in Q4 and beyond is the success and timing of getting export permits. Therefore, guiding for the future is somewhat tricky for us right now as we cannot predict future timing of permits or our success in obtaining them for any customer or individual order. But drawing on what we know and have what we've experienced this far in the export permitting process, we can offer the following insight into our expectations for Q4. As of today, We have approximately $20 million in revenue that can be realized in Q4 across our substrate product lines and raw materials for which we either already have a permit to ship or for which an export permit is not required because it ships within China. We have a high degree of confidence in recognizing this revenue in Q4. In addition, we believe there's an incremental $7 to $10 million in Indian phosphide and gallium arsenide backlog which is currently in our manufacturing process for which we believe we may be able to ship in Q4 if we are awarded permits. Of course, timing of permits is not within our control, but we believe we are in a similar or slightly better position in terms of customer order backlog and permit submissions than we were at this same point in the prior quarter. As such, with that as background, We believe we have the capability to achieve revenue in the range of $27 to $30 million in Q4, subject to the caveats I just mentioned. This takes into consideration approximately flat sequential revenue contribution from germanium substrates and raw materials, with incremental growth in Q4 likely coming from indium phosphide and gallium arsenide substrates. As Morris mentioned, we continue to focus strongly on gross margin, We made significant gains in Q3 and continue to work on our manufacturing efficiency. Further improvement in Q4 depends on a number of factors, including total revenue as it relates to the absorption of fixed costs, revenue mixed by product, and our ability to continue to drive better manufacturing efficiency. With regards to OPEX, we expect that it will increase to approximately 9 million as a result of some incremental end-of-the-year adjustments and a return to a more normalized level. With these factors in mind, we believe our non-GAAP net loss will be in the range of one to three cents, and our GAAP net loss will be in the range of three to five cents. This represents substantial year-over-year progress towards our return to profitability. We estimate the share count for Q4 will be approximately 43.8 million shares. And okay, this concludes our prepared comments. We'll be glad to answer your questions now. Operator, Kelvin?

Operator | Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. I would like to remind everyone to ask a question. Please press the star button followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star one again. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Charles Shi of Needham & Co.

Please go ahead. Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham & Co.

Hi. Morris, Gary, congrats on receiving the licenses, the permits, shipping 8 million additional revenue in a quarter, and congrats again on the 49 million backlog. That was an exciting number to hear. Really want to get back to this point, the customer behavior change, like are they placing longer-term orders, but I think if I hear you correctly, some of those customers may not necessarily have the permits at this point and still proceeded to place the orders with you, a pretty significant amount of orders with you. Can you kind of talk through what exactly is driving that behavior and what do you think the export permits, the current ones you already have, Are there time limits to that? Are there, like, volume limits to that? And what could be your best prediction going forward from here that customer behavior can continue to evolve?

Thank you. Tim | VP, Operations

Tim? Yeah, thank you, Charles. So we have, as you said, a $49 million backlog. That includes customers that have previously received permits. and customers that are still in their permit phase for the first permit as we go through. Everybody that has previously received a permit has typically received subsequent permits from there. So there's a lot of confidence in getting further permits as we move forward through this. So people are placing orders into that backlog with the understanding that the confidence levels of receiving permits are high, especially for indium phosphide. So as we look forward and as we look at that backlog, all of the orders that we've received and put into backlog have permit applications in place so far. And we manage that backlog and those permit applications, and we manage the manufacturing process so that we can combine the expected permit approval time with the finishing of the product. So our lead time to ship the product after receiving the permit is very low.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So maybe I can add another point. I hear Charles is asking, is there any relationship with customer giving us a lot more order, longer order lead time, is it because we have a permit process? I think that is true. People are realizing, instead of just in time, they want to give us a long lead time to submit the permit application so that we can ship this product to them in time. Is that part of the question, Charles?

Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham & Co.

Yes. I think that may be a better way to help us understand what the permit does to the size of the orders, how much long-term the orders is going to be. Maybe you can shed some light, let's say, the order currently on average cover, is it like a one-year demand, two-year demand, three-year demand? What do you see there? Like how long does the order you have in the backlog covers what customers demand?

Tim | VP, Operations

Right, okay, understood. Thanks, Charles. So the permit, we apply for a permit, and it can be for multiple shipments, number of shipments up to 12. This is the important part. The permit only lasts six months. So everything has to be shipped within six months of receiving the permit.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, and the other point is this. Our customers are telling us, we'll give you this order. If you get the permit and if you can manufacture it, you can ship it tomorrow.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

So when Tim mentions up to 12, that means 12 line items. Every PO needs a separate permit. So if you put each line item on a separate PO, then we need 12 permits.

Yeah. It's complicated. Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham & Co.

as they say in the show business. It is, it is. So maybe I ask another question on profitability. So when you were at this revenue level in the high 20s, going back a few years, you probably have a gross margin somewhere in the high 20s or even low 30s percent. and you would have a non-GAAP APS in the positive territory. But I think, Gary, if I hear you right, I think you're still expecting some GAAP, some non-GAAP loss in the coming quarter. And I wonder if there's anything, you know, cost structure that's a little bit different now versus back then. How do we get back to the similar profitability level at the similar revenue round rate back in the, let's say, only go back two or three years?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I expected to be asked that question to us. And it's something that we talk about internally. So as I like to say to ourselves and to analysts and investors, in our business model, it's never one single dial. It's not like one thing we can focus on, and we have to focus on two to four things to sort of move the needle in the right direction. In this regard, one of the things we need to get improvement on is gross margin, and that's primarily a result of mix, which is going in our favor right now, and also efficiencies on the line. So I'm actually encouraged to be able to say this because It's pretty much in our control. And we've done better than we're doing right now. But it is common in manufacturing businesses to have some cycles. And so I think we can work on that and focus on it and get improvement. That's probably the biggest one. I think we could get a bit more help from our joint venture companies. Expect that to improve in the coming quarters as well. But those are the two things that come to mind.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

So Charles, maybe I can answer part of the other question. I think that the deadliest thing in manufacturing, I think analysts should ask is, is your ASP dropping? Okay, I think we can say, except with the low end on the two inch in the fast wire, most of our ASP are holding very firm. In fact, some of the ASP for our high end low EPD in the phosphide substrate, their ASP is increasing. So I think we can surely stop that worry. I mean, we have some other efficiency issues, such as loading factors. You know, germanium is perhaps not making a whole lot of money for us, because the pricing pressure is very strong. But the main focus on any phosphide spk01: The pricing is firm and the demand is high.

Charles Shi | Analyst, Needham & Co.

Thanks. I think maybe one last question before I jump back into the queue would be the Indian phosphide demand you're seeing today, How much of that is from the overseas customers that need a permit versus domestic Chinese customers? And if I recall correctly, I remember that the indium phosphide was primarily shifted to outside of China previously. How much of the domestic development today maybe has led to a little bit more of a domestic shipment of the indium phosphide? If you can kind of, you know, paint a little bit of picture to us of how things have been evolving, that would be great.

Thank you. Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, actually indium phosphide business is very globally connected. a lot of our substrates are shipped to, let's say, Taiwan to put an API on and shipped back to the United States to make a device and shipped back to China to make a transceiver and then shipped back to U.S. data centers. So I think, you know, but our direct customer in China is roughly, I would say, 40%. But the great advantage AI opportunity definitely is, you know, the big increase is in the AI data center in the United States.

Tim | VP, Operations

I think I can add to that as well. If you look at our financials from Q2 versus Q3, you can see that the indium phosphide in Q2 was about $3.5 million, and that's increased to about $13 million in Q3. So that kind of gives you an idea of what the incremental is, and all of that incremental has come from outside of China.

Thank you. Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Next question, please.

Operator | Conference Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Richard Shannon of Craig Hallam.

Please go ahead. Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital

Well, hi, Morris, Gary, and Tim. Thanks for taking my questions, and I'll offer grads on a wonderful quarter. Great to see. So, grads to the entire team for making that happen here. Let's start with the first question here on the union classified backlog. I just want to understand the dynamics here. Maybe if you can help us understand a few things here. What was the backlog a quarter ago, and then how far out are customers ordering here? I would imagine, given one of the prior answers here, talking about a permit allows you to ship for six months, that they're probably going out six months here, but just want to get a sense of what this looks like and how it's changed.

Tim | VP, Operations

Yeah, so as Morris has previously said, those permits do last six months, but most of our customers are asking to ship as soon as we can. So that backlog, once we have a permit, we can ship that backlog as quickly as we can manufacture, to be perfectly honest. So in terms of our backlog last quarter, we've got more than double the backlog as we speak today than we had last quarter. So, you know, that continues to grow. And as was said in the conference call, we're seeing more and more new opportunities coming. So that backlog is growing daily as we speak.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. You know, maybe I can chime in a bit. You know, I think this CEO, I take care of a lot of this China development, engineering, and manufacturing, and also one of my duties is to push the IPO process in China. But recently, I got pulled in more and more to talk to customers in phosphides because they cannot get enough material. They call my sales guys and the sales guy says, well, you got to come and visit the customers to calm them down. How are we going to opening up the opportunity to supply any phosphide customers? So I got a lot of this very good, warm, receptions from our customers, and sometimes from the customer's customer, and also the end user. So in other words, the IP growers, the device makers, as well as the CPU, GPU makers. In fact, I got a message from our customers, especially globally, not especially. They all told us that we are a very important supplier of Indian phosphide. Secondly, they all told me there's a great, great opportunity to increase the demand in the near future. Obviously, they are all anxious to know what are we going to do to ease the pain of getting the permits to export material. And lastly, quite a few customers told us they start to appreciate the better EPD or the better quality of indium phosphide material we supply. In fact, one customer told me that now every dye counts, and using our substrates, they can make better dye yield on their lasers or detectors. So I think that's a very warming information for me, and also telling us that indium phosphide There's a paradigm shift because of the global increased demand for AI connectivity in optical transceivers. And what's the other word? CPOs?

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

CPOs.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

I start to learn that word.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital

Yeah. Okay. That is helpful. I'm going to explore a couple of different angles on the dynamic here. I think one of the things that investors will be worried about or cognizant of here is customers understanding the geopolitical dynamics, as you referenced in your prepared remarks, and worried about the door shutting here at any point, you know, very well could be, you know, ordering well above what their normal rates of consumption would be in building some level of inventory. To what degree do you see that behavior anywhere here in the in the backlog build, and what are the limits to your shipping faster? Are you near, you know, full utilization, near-duty classified today?

Tim | VP, Operations

So let me start by answering the dynamic question. I think the fact of the matter is that people are building inventory levels so that they have inventory on hand. but I don't think this is a one-time build-out because they're concerned. This is a multi-year cycle. So the demand today that we're seeing is real, and you can see evidence of that all up and down the supply chain for optical transceivers. I want to really just look at some of the capex spending messaging that was given from U.S. hyperscalers on their earnings calls yesterday. So everybody is talking about CapEx moving faster and, quote, growth in dollars getting noticeably larger as we go through financial year 26. So there's definitely growth going on here at the hyperscale level, and we're seeing that come into here. We're also seeing longer-term discussions on indium phosphide for CPO. both on scale up and scale across now so the demand is there the demand is real and of course people are building backlog also people are building inventory levels but those inventory levels will continue to grow so we don't see this as a one-and-done shot yeah so let me add on to another point you know yesterday Tim and I were in the valley visiting a few Dr.

Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

actually customers' customers. They're asking me what can they help in terms of financially, in terms of customer relationship to ensure that Indian phosphorus will be supplied. In other words, they are telling me there's a tsunami coming. I just don't know how big the tsunami is because the normal rate, let's say if it is a one foot wave, then tsunami is only 10 feet. It's not that big. But if the normal wave is already 5 feet, then that's going to be very significant. So we're going to get that information soon. But I think the demand from what I hear is enormous. And don't forget, Richard, we are 40% of the Indian phosphide supply chain. And we have the best quality materials.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

By the way, tsunami was used by the customer that Morris and Tim were visiting. We're not making it up in our conference room. So I was struck to hear that word as a description of what's on the future.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital

Okay. Thanks for that. Now let me ask another question here looking on the other side of this dynamic here, which is you mentioned a number of engagements with customers you've not worked with ever or for a very long time here. I think, Morris, you've been talking about the very, very good EPD specs on your D5-5 for a few years at least. And we haven't heard you talk about new customers really much, if at all. And I know I've asked on this conference call a few times in the last few years on this topic. Why is it they're all of a sudden coming to you now? It seems like It's a unique or, I guess, a coincidental timing to see a number of customers coming to you at this particular time. What's going on here and what's driving that?

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Gee, you're so smart. I mean, you called me. But, you know, I tell you, I have a perfect answer to that. That is, first of all, I think with all these lasers getting bigger and bigger, the EPD is getting that much more efficient. Because the larger the device, the chances of you hitting an EPD is higher. In fact, yesterday, I was told by one of the customers, how come you guys can make the EPD so low? Right, Tim?

Tim | VP, Operations

Right, right. And I think the market is maturing such as well. And the demands that our customers are being faced with, with increased demands, increased capacity, One of the customers said to us, every device is important. The yield of devices on a wafer has become so much more important today than it ever has been, both because of cost and capacity constraints within the fab. So people are turning to us because they get much higher device yields from our wafers.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Yes, that's what that customer told us. Straight in the face, they wouldn't tell us because we would have to ask higher price.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Richard, a secondary factor subservient to what Morris and Tim just described is there is a concern among the customer base about capacity and capacity potential. They're sensing that there's shortages, and we are the best positioned currently with capacity and with the ability to respond quickly to add capacity.

Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital

Well, Gary, that was a perfect setup for my next question here, which is on a full run rate basis, hand-in-mouth basis here, what is your kind of maximum Indian phosphide revenues per quarter here? And how long would it take you to get a new capacity and what kind of CapEx commitment to grow it by, I don't know, say 25%? How does that look like?

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Well, you know, we could double our capacity on Indian phosphide in about nine months time it would take us about my estimation is because this is our green field we got the clean room already we got your land already and all we need to do is add a few crystal boys so my estimation is about 10 to 15 million dollars but we need a signal i i'm i'm getting it Tim | VP, Operations: So let me answer the question on current capacity there, Richard. So it's a complex question because it depends on a number of factors relating to product mix and wafer size and inventory on hand and all that kind of stuff. But we estimate that current capacity is around about $20 million a quarter for indium phosphide with our current run rate and current capacity that we've got. You asked how quickly can we increase by 25%. Probably within about three months, we can increase by 25%. We do not need to build anything other than bring some more furnaces online.

spk01

And to add, for us to double that, then we need nine months.

I caught that. Richard Shannon | Analyst, Craig-Hallum Capital

That's perfect perspective. I've asked a lot of questions. I will jump in line and read you here, guys. Thank you.

Thank you very much. Operator | Conference Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Tim Savageau, Northland Capital Markets.

Please go ahead. Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Hey, good afternoon. And again, congrats on that backlog number. Believe it or not, I still have a few questions. And I guess the overall question is, guys, is doubling capacity, is that a tsunami? Or is that just good business?

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

That's a good question, but I think I'll be happily retiring when the capacity is doubled with all these better growth modules. I'm joking. I think it's a lot more than that. I think, but one step at a time. I think if we can double that, and I think we have all the ability to increase our capacity, well, the easiest way is in China. But I think beyond that, we may want to consider building something.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Yeah, US-based capacity would make a lot of sense. And yeah, I think just intuitively, a tsunami is like 5 to 10x. And I have heard numbers like that in the industry in terms of where demand is going to be. And it sounds like the tsunami reference in particular Is that a specific kind of looking forward, scale up, scale across comments, which is to say, I assume what you're seeing in terms of current demand is likely module driven, might be similarly CPO, you tell me, but in terms of the real big step function and capacity, is that discussion mostly CPO based or scale up type based?

Tim | VP, Operations

Yeah, that's absolutely right. So we are seeing growth right now. That is, we believe, in the pluggable market and probably will continue to be in the pluggable market for the next few years. But we are starting to have those discussions now about growth rates for CPO for scale up. And the tsunami, the 510X that you talk about, That is, a lot of that is coming from CPO for scale up.

spk01

Yeah.

Yeah. Tim | VP, Operations

Yeah.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Makes sense. Sorry, Morris, were you saying something?

spk01

No, I said yes.

Yeah. Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

I like talking. The question, I'll add to the, just trying to get a sense of this backlog. So, you know, you increased your backlog. You doubled it and shipped 13 million in material. which I think gives you a book to build. It's approaching three, so that's not bad. But where would that kind of normally be, I guess? And so maybe as opposed to go back to last quarter, let's go back to last year or just historically, you know, without export, you know, permits required, what kind of backlog would you normally have in terms of, you know, quarters of revenue or just straight up, where was that indium phosphide backlog? you know, Q3-24?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Well, because we could be responsive to customer orders, we had a lot of terms business every quarter. So to be honest, we don't really, in terms of me and Morris and Tim, we don't manage the company by looking at it book to bill. You know, I have in other companies, but it's not very meaningful in this case. So it's hard to say what it was because I don't have a piece of paper in front of me with that list. Because there's no such list.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Got it. Well, it sounds like it should be some fraction, you know, maybe half or a third of whatever your Indian phosphide revenue was a year ago.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Your backlog is tsunami. It's up 10x, right?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. And again, tsunami was not, I agree with you, tsunami is 5 to 10x. And I'll say again, that was not our words. That was the words from you know, an end customer.

Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

So, uh, yep. Okay. Last one for me, um, mentioned two 10% customers in the quarter and, uh, Morris, you talked about kind of industry structure, you know, epi tier one back to the U S but, um, any color on, you know, whether you've got a, you know, an integrated device maker in there is just really focused on, EpiWave for suppliers or whether you might have a new 10% customer in there.

Tim | VP, Operations

Dan? Yeah, so the 10% customers that we've got, we've been dealing with for a while. The new customers that we've got are integrators as well. We're dealing more and more with integrators and hardware customers.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

Including GPU and CPU makers.

Tim | VP, Operations

Exactly right. So we're dealing directly with GPU, CPU hardware makers. We're dealing with pluggable makers. So that's where really the visibility is coming from.

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I would say in the past we haven't had access to those people. But now they're calling us. They want to see us. So that's why we had better visibility.

Yeah. Tim Savageau | Analyst, Northland Capital Markets

Got it.

Thanks. Operator | Conference Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Matt Bryson of Wedbush Securities.

Please go ahead. Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

This is going to sound a little bit like a complaint, but it's not a complaint. Just curious. So there's clearly a whole lot of demand out there. Your Japanese competitor has announced two capacity increases in the last I think, four months, three months. Just curious, if you have all this backlog and your customers want more product faster, why wouldn't you be building and shipping to capacity next quarter or this quarter?

Tim | VP, Operations

Well, all of our shipments, all of our ability to ship is based on permitting. So we, as we've talked about plenty of times, we've got a large backlog now and we can ship as we've been told by customers, we can ship as quickly as we possibly can. But we have to go through the permitting process. Now that permitting process, you know, it, it takes 60 business days, which is approximately three months. And there, there is some opaqueness to that permitting process. So, you know, If we had a bunch of permits today, I'm sure we could ship an awful lot more of that backlog today. We've guided at $27 to $30 million. If we got permits, could we ship more than that? Yes, we could. But we're basically running trend analysis on how long it takes to get permits and probability analysis of what permits we're going to get. And that's where the guidance comes in.

Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

by the way we're not standing still on those orders that we are applying for permits we are putting that into whip you know in other words we're making it and we're packaging it and waiting for the permits to to be issued and then we can deliver right away got it understood so it i mean it comes down to the permissive gating factor but as hopefully permit approvals Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities: continue to get across the line and lift, there's a path to achieving the levels of shipments that you were at a few years back during COVID. And then I guess in terms of gross margins, obviously when you're running back at close to full capacity back then, you had substantially higher gross margins, I guess what's key to getting gross margins back up? Is it predominantly utilization or were you benefiting back then from higher pricing? Can you just talk to kind of the dynamics around gross margins, where they can go to from here if you can get indium phosphide back up to full utilization?

Gary Fisher | Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Pricing is not really a big factor. I think the big factor is volume because it does carry more of the fixed assets in a proper way. And then I'm confident we can return. We're going to be over 30% because we can control that. So we need to improve the efficiencies on the line. but I already commented on that. So I see it going in that direction.

Thanks. Dr. Morris Young | President & Chief Executive Officer

And again, I think the most important factor is we got more, we can utilize our Indian phosphorus line. I think that's the greatest opportunity we're facing now.

Matt Bryson | Analyst, Wedbush Securities

Got it. Understood, Morris. Thanks. Thanks, Matt.

Operator | Conference Operator

Next question. Once again, ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, press the star button, followed by the number one on your telephone keypad. There are no further questions at this time. And with that, I will turn the call back to Leslie Greene for closing remarks.

Please go ahead. Leslie Greene | VP, Investor Relations

Thank you, everyone, for participating in our conference call. We will be participating in the Northland Virtual Conference in December and the Needham Growth Conference in January, and we hope to see many of you there. As always, feel free to reach out to any one of us if you would like to set up a call, and we look forward to speaking with you in the near future.

Operator | Conference Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We thank you for participating. You may now disconnect. jsPDF 3.0.3 D:20260606090002-00'00'